Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d5b7169396ae0c6542d222c0d56d69246588562e70bf99ba81e3c950ef3d4d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,075 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	53c	694.18$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.14	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256f…2fa5backed No	40c	349.1$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.54	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes	54c	258$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.22	431	45.2%195 W · 236 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	59c	199.98$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.99	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	47c	178.94$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.83	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	55c	170.85$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.13	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd21…9f89backed No	43c	163.72$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	49c	150$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.92	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1315…7c77backed Yes	62c	103.52$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.41	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68f0…7443backed Yes	53c	101.89$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.89	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Yes	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	209	55.5%116 W · 93 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed No	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	97	23.7%23 W · 74 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	45c	99.6$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.82	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	60c	98.26$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.3	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes	60c	90.84$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.34	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	51c	82.18$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.52	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	45c	67.03$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	59c	65$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.35	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.8	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes	55c	59.39$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.73	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	61c	51.47$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.07	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked No	45c	51.46$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.17	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0855…ae26backed No	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	144	36.1%52 W · 92 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes	56c	44.48$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.35	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+4.4wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+93.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9070…e32cbacked No	46c	40.96$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes	61c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked No	43c	37.81$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.26	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	51c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	58c	28.84$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.15	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c1…28f3backed Yes	58c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2db…140abacked No	48c	21.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+8.8wins	+0.17per pick	41cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked Yes	55c	20.35$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.16	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9372…5093backed Yes	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.22per pick	41cpaid	+60.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed Yes	61c	18.46$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event