Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x091bae40715c9e9544ed8618bd89d2a2170d91207ba517f3489d199ad7e1b387

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,502 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	80c	489$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.45	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	36c	353.56$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.48	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccba…11f0backed No	38c	274.09$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.88	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes	20c	155$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124	320	44.1%141 W · 179 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	47c	144.21$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.05	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes	27c	116.14$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.52	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x064f…e6b8backed Yes	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed No	31c	99.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes	68c	99.99$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	108	47.2%51 W · 57 L	-6.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x281f…3e7ebacked Yes	17c	87.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.9	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed No	77c	80.37$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.78	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+5.3wins	+0.20per pick	45cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked No	26c	80$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	73c	80$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9a…68ddbacked Yes	72c	69.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.53	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…b295backed Yes	42c	57.98$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.63	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	70c	57.04$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.08	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	20c	54$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.2	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes	60c	53.63$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.45	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-4.1wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	71c	51.03$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.97	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes	21c	50$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.5	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed Yes	58c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed Yes	58c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc436…76c9backed Yes	68c	49.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	40	60%24 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc348…2a83backed Yes	31c	48.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.5	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked No	34c	45.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	74c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.4	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes	34c	32.8$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	85	42.4%36 W · 49 L	-11.7wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	56c	30.43$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.39	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6415…5089backed Yes	69c	30.43$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.43	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Yes	71c	29.43$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.63	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb59…6ca3backed Yes	75c	26.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.67	159	52.8%84 W · 75 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0b…7429backed Yes	76c	26.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.32	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes	73c	24.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.61	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+4.4wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+93.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes	73c	24.14$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.44	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x05ec…f767backed Yes	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	66cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b2…5805backed Yes	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	156	35.9%56 W · 100 L	-12.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa74…78b9backed Yes	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-9.0wins	-0.20per pick	59cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5cf8…69abbacked Yes	67c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf399…287ebacked Yes	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3578…8c5fbacked Yes	60c	16.76$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.76	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-8.9wins	-0.20per pick	59cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event