Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb437045a26822b0b8fb728b673f008ab66429746b1cac83634ed05f2c8fbae15

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,192 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc326…1db1backed No	71c	832.05$588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.05	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes	44c	684.15$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.36	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x17c0…c49bbacked No	26c	388.06$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.61	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes	67c	309.49$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206	403	55.3%223 W · 180 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed Yes	64c	275.63$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.25	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	23c	266.91$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.18	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	56c	249.48$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.67	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	73c	236.99$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.86	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x264f…cd38backed Yes	23c	218.42$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.83	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed No	32c	165$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.17	185	38.9%72 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef4…557bbacked Yes	63c	157.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	79c	155.47$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.65	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed No	52c	152.84$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.83	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked Yes	47c	149.98$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.49	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	59c	143$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.29	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No	73c	132.97$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.24	197	42.6%84 W · 113 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	40c	108.8$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.09	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8647…d870backed No	35c	100$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	51c	97.08$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.39	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked No	36c	96.2$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.57	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf975…4354backed No	37c	79.13$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.85	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…d461backed No	41c	72.31$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.31	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1da…0370backed No	29c	69.86$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.86	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb6…8e4abacked Yes	70c	66$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.2	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.26per pick	38cpaid	-75%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	62c	63.64$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.68	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x773c…2943backed Yes	47c	63.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.72	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	36c	54.86$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.86	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	74c	53$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.15	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed No	39c	51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.11	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a69…228fbacked No	61c	50.82$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.82	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No	29c	50.71$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	62c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0855…ae26backed No	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f02…c78fbacked Yes	70c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	120	47.5%57 W · 63 L	-7.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab3c…4b3cbacked No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc449…037cbacked No	25c	49.99$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.49	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+56.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc23…5a3dbacked No	40c	48.55$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.27	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed No	79c	45.01$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.45	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86a0…2f95backed No	56c	44.32$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.55	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x293e…dd7dbacked Yes	68c	43.87$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.83	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	70cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9e…6838backed No	25c	40$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes	71c	38.87$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	163	36.2%59 W · 104 L	-9.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No	34c	38.69$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.54	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+4.4wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+93.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	79c	33.94$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.13	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d82…3a1bbacked No	78c	30.58$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.81	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25bd…30a1backed No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	75	62.7%47 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc318…d82abacked No	38c	29.09$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes	73c	28.51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.81	116	36.2%42 W · 74 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	61c	21.56$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x211a…6ef4backed Yes	74c	21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa74…78b9backed Yes	74c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-9.0wins	-0.20per pick	59cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0d8b…35dcbacked Yes	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	74cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes	75c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd44c…28c5backed No	80c	13$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.6	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	59cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event