Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb26579838415bcbdab8ec865d8b022b24f2166f8ad2eda1d128f975f5b14672d

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,785 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	72c	1,040$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745.41	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked No	24c	999.99$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$760	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	24c	518.65$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$394.17	318	51.9%165 W · 153 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	75c	265.31$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	33c	261.16$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.62	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f02…c78fbacked Yes	77c	258.68$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.01	120	47.5%57 W · 63 L	-7.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed Yes	70c	216$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.2	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e1e…c5e3backed No	47c	211.65$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.65	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe158…509fbacked Yes	76c	210$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-37%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Yes	66c	200$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b9…e354backed Yes	76c	200$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc449…037cbacked No	25c	199.99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.99	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+56.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7fb…e5fdbacked No	44c	171$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.96	112	56.3%63 W · 49 L	+9.5wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4de5…e874backed Yes	50c	170$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	27c	149.98$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.45	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No	35c	120$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	144	36.1%52 W · 92 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc104…f24fbacked Yes	73c	115.18$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.58	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Yes	76c	105$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.8	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…aca8backed No	26c	100$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Yes	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	36c	98.38$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.96	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	43c	87.72$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.64	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed No	40c	86$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.6	40	35%14 W · 26 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed No	44c	85.16$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.39	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed No	29c	76.72$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.72	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+25%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	50c	61.51$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	49c	60.8$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.8	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	74c	60.37$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.67	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed No	24c	60$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.6	97	23.7%23 W · 74 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	55c	59.99$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	36c	54.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	802	25.7%206 W · 596 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed Yes	48c	52.16$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.24	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	33c	50$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.75	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	72c	50$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1f1…a99abacked Yes	69c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.20per pick	35cpaid	+111.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2352…1d44backed Yes	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fd…9963backed Yes	70c	42.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e1…e621backed Yes	74c	40.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	70	72.9%51 W · 19 L	+7.3wins	+0.10per pick	62cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked Yes	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	129	33.3%43 W · 86 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes	76c	39.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	396	48.7%193 W · 203 L	-23.6wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	34c	35.7$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.62	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes	56c	34.57$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	85	42.4%36 W · 49 L	-11.7wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed No	32c	33.7$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.92	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.85	108	49.1%53 W · 55 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	148	39.2%58 W · 90 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c89…0057backed Yes	55c	29.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.49	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x914b…a886backed Yes	72c	29.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.59	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e73…9150backed Yes	67c	29.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	83	60.2%50 W · 33 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51d0…ce35backed Yes	73c	27.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	36cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x328c…6715backed Yes	73c	27.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3578…8c5fbacked Yes	75c	26.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-8.9wins	-0.20per pick	59cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No	52c	25.17$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.08	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb326…d18bbacked Yes	43c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	73c	24$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.52	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	70c	23.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	46c	23.17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.46	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No	50c	20.66$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.33	120	38.3%46 W · 74 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad1b…1d65backed Yes	65c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ec…f767backed Yes	74c	19.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	66cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No	61c	17.45$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.81	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked Yes	75c	17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	74c	16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c12…91fcbacked Yes	78c	15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	63	71.4%45 W · 18 L	+9.4wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event