Will Iliman Ndiaye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0106a89304287f05915e56d413b04b2ff30620142d63b7ea7ab06affb60a1b47

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,549 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8725…eb10backed Yes	39c	299.98$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.71	431	45.2%195 W · 236 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	59c	98.03$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.94	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	67c	80$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.48	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d5b…7744backed No	64c	78.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	55c	71.26$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.44	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	64c	71.26$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.61	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No	58c	52.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.73	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	36c	50.21$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.13	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed No	59c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0855…ae26backed No	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes	46c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	66cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	62c	21.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iliman Ndiaye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event