TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x17c0…c49b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$496Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$496.34
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,283Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+513.1%+$6,581.68
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,278.4
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$814Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$814.35
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.77
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$457.28
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+282.5%+$286.61
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.6
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.06
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.47
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.3
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$743Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$742.74
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.47
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$569Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$568.82
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.18
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.73
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.5
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Dylan Harper win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.95
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$320
Will V.J. Edgecombe win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.52
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$335.76
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$82
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$774Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$773.77
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick4cpaid+404.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,138Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+900%+$19,237.5
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$119
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.56
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,125
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$381.27
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$692Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$691.98
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$872Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+4,451.5%+$38,801.77
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.09
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$437.28
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.47
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$403.3
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.01
Will Lyon win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$254.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$174.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$227.73
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.