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NBA · resolved market

Will Dylan Harper win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$235,618
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,618 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe021…10e8backed Yes1c32,056$179 inLost-$178.85825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x530c…529fbacked Yes0c18,413$18 inLost-$18.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c6,468$14 inLost-$13.8440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,340$57 inLost-$57.031,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes2c4,199$68 inLost-$685628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes1c4,142$41 inLost-$41.48238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c0…c49bbacked Yes4c3,586$142 inLost-$141.95128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89f…0df8backed Yes1c2,006$21 inLost-$21.032528%7 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73d…20e2backed Yes7c1,575$110 inLost-$110250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e74…b428backed Yes3c1,491$47 inLost-$47.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-83.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c1,468$11 inLost-$11.1180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes3c1,340$47 inLost-$46.7339449.2%194 W · 200 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f72…5ffdbacked Yes2c1,270$21 inLost-$21.351010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf522…806cbacked Yes5c1,014$51 inLost-$50.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d19…4513backed Yes13c764.36$100 inLost-$1002536%9 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes16c444$70 inLost-$70.4918452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc40…7727backed Yes6c440.36$26 inLost-$26.01966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.