NBA · resolved market

Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe95ff27a08494e0ff6678172d00e2c334099664f3ae00c7f47d02749be52e3bd

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $231,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $174,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,173 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x866e…919dbacked Yes	0c	5,969$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes	5c	4,920$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.64	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.9wins	+0.26per pick	47cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes	8c	4,852$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.53	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	13c	4,559$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.25	401	33.4%134 W · 267 L	+27.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Yes	10c	4,132$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.02	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Yes	10c	3,595$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.65	492	44.3%218 W · 274 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	5c	2,743$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.15	221	40.3%89 W · 132 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes	43c	2,352$1,018 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,017.55	394	49.2%194 W · 200 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a2…3dfcbacked No	56c	2,144$1,201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$943.36	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	4c	2,081$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.9	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f1…8e46backed Yes	42c	2,042$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.64	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes	11c	2,023$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.17	1,602	11.8%189 W · 1,413 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed Yes	2c	2,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.4	72	44.4%32 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Yes	15c	1,693$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.5	98	39.8%39 W · 59 L	-12.3wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Yes	17c	1,677$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.39	170	42.4%72 W · 98 L	+8.1wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0b…c5f8backed Yes	28c	1,648$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.71	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes	9c	1,613$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.54	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed Yes	43c	1,506$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.25per pick	42cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	11c	1,502$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.31	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed Yes	44c	1,463$644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.82	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe91…7b3dbacked Yes	14c	1,435$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	191	44.5%85 W · 106 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356f…639fbacked Yes	8c	1,432$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.59	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+141.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed Yes	44c	1,420$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.8	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes	12c	1,324$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.36	56	28.6%16 W · 40 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x546a…1abbbacked No	56c	1,191$667 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$524.04	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes	43c	1,169$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.69	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes	44c	1,129$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.76	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Yes	18c	1,125$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	147	27.9%41 W · 106 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed Yes	44c	1,106$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.82	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes	44c	1,100$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9264…3734backed Yes	43c	1,058$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.94	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes	44c	1,055$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.29	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed No	55c	991$545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.95	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.18per pick	39cpaid	+55.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes	55c	987.34$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.82	185	56.8%105 W · 80 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfda4…1058backed Yes	42c	965$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.82	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No	56c	956$535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420.64	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked No	58c	934$542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.28	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+2.5wins	+0.23per pick	41cpaid	+79.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bfa…4578backed Yes	42c	929$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.18	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked No	57c	920$522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$397.76	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2103…e296backed Yes	43c	881$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.49	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes	53c	872$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.89	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No	43c	842$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$479.94	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked No	56c	833$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$366.52	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce16…b18ebacked No	57c	809$461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.87	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.18per pick	37cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54f2…55d9backed Yes	44c	802$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.88	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed Yes	57c	773$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.61	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked Yes	42c	756$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.52	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.26per pick	42cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked No	59c	752$444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.32	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed No	56c	744$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.36	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	40cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No	57c	741$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.96	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes	41c	724$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.84	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked No	55c	723$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.35	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed No	44c	712$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400.82	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed Yes	58c	712$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.96	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d91…89d8backed No	56c	699$391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.56	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-29%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed Yes	57c	683$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.31	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17c0…c49bbacked Yes	49c	682.68$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.76	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14d5…1f63backed Yes	44c	676$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.44	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	39cpaid	-65%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a1d…8d17backed Yes	10c	657$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.04	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0367…1c15backed No	60c	653$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.2	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x534b…983fbacked Yes	9c	649.72$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.07	136	38.2%52 W · 84 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed No	58c	644$373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.55	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed No	56c	643$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.92	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79a1…2d87backed No	56c	643$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.92	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48b2…ea4ebacked Yes	45c	635$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.75	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes	5c	629.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.07	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes	35c	626$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.1	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+20%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed No	58c	624$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.08	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864a…9ed1backed Yes	44c	616$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5baa…0ec6backed Yes	43c	616$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.96	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	52c	613.58$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.41	220	41.4%91 W · 129 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No	43c	610$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.7	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe62…6d76backed No	56c	609$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.96	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed No	56c	603$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.76	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aaf…4bd2backed Yes	44c	597$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.68	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e96…c895backed No	57c	566$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.38	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.9wins	+0.16per pick	45cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93fb…e392backed No	56c	557$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.08	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-3.0wins	-0.27per pick	54cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes	60c	550$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb6…5ea0backed No	56c	547$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.68	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.28per pick	52cpaid	+97.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed No	58c	541$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.22	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Yes	60c	532$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.2	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes	41c	523.07$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213	184	52.7%97 W · 87 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed No	65c	519$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.93	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x425a…78cbbacked Yes	41c	517$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.97	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No	40c	513$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.8	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd194…24b8backed Yes	12c	505.5$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.69	106	53.8%57 W · 49 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes	44c	491$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.04	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-75%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed No	43c	487$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.59	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.4wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No	57c	486$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.32	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.25per pick	39cpaid	+71.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xad04…dce5backed No	55c	485$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.25	10	40%4 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	6c	482.88$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	172	33.7%58 W · 114 L	-9.7wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b02…cfc1backed Yes	44c	481$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.64	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10bf…27c9backed Yes	13c	479.99$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.6	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Yes	9c	479.33$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.95	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked No	46c	479$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.98	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No	70c	467$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.1	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7410…ad32backed No	69c	467$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.77	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x184f…a48fbacked No	56c	463$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.72	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6416…18d7backed Yes	8c	460.71$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.84	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1460…d60bbacked Yes	5c	460$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	133	33.8%45 W · 88 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event