NBA · resolved market

Will Amen Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef58a6967ff9416c2410dddc5897a3410099f64bde5ea8a063c4e775c6ebd570

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $508,433
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $508,433 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3a68…56b2backed Yes	0c	24,220$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bdd…ca37backed Yes	0c	12,690$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f81…ad40backed Yes	0c	12,660$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc389…295abacked Yes	0c	12,550$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3590…3ccfbacked Yes	0c	12,510$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6231…3026backed Yes	0c	12,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x973b…d4a6backed Yes	0c	12,470$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf84b…c2e5backed Yes	0c	12,450$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa96…60e4backed Yes	0c	12,450$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf050…b0b7backed Yes	0c	12,290$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.29	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…4dd5backed Yes	0c	12,260$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeef0…969ebacked Yes	0c	12,240$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x800b…1a1fbacked Yes	0c	12,220$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56dc…10f1backed Yes	0c	12,220$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-84%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf146…06b4backed Yes	0c	12,220$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20a3…7888backed Yes	0c	12,200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.17per pick	41cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b26…a4adbacked Yes	0c	12,180$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x771b…b76ebacked Yes	0c	12,170$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-77.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19b…74b4backed Yes	0c	12,140$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe3…1669backed Yes	0c	12,130$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea9…a1b2backed Yes	0c	12,130$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9176…e2b5backed Yes	0c	12,120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac7…f4eebacked Yes	0c	12,120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc63…561abacked Yes	0c	12,110$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a01…6740backed Yes	0c	12,030$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ec…8cd3backed Yes	0c	12,020$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a13…7f70backed Yes	0c	12,020$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20cf…e5edbacked Yes	0c	12,010$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.01	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	27cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b5…24ecbacked Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cef…fff6backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf615…1297backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a68…3ca7backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f2…91f1backed Yes	0c	11,990$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7922…52babacked Yes	0c	11,106$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb9…4d1ebacked Yes	0c	10,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf78f…0b4fbacked Yes	0c	10,300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcf…4272backed Yes	0c	10,150$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbff…1681backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes	3c	1,375$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.07	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,234$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1446…0a30backed Yes	2c	1,030$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	37	2.7%1 W · 36 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	3c	640.6$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	401	33.4%134 W · 267 L	+27.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes	4c	557$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	394	49.2%194 W · 200 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes	3c	349.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Amen Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event