TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,058 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3144…7959backed Yes0c18,328$18 inLost-$18.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ca…0e40backed Yes0c18,108$18 inLost-$18.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8a70backed Yes0c13,530$14 inLost-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a4…8bd4backed Yes0c13,525$14 inLost-$13.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a15…3283backed Yes0c12,214$12 inLost-$12.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f6…d7afbacked Yes0c11,999$12 inLost-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd09c…0af3backed Yes0c10,258$10 inLost-$10.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes1c3,075$30 inLost-$29.99214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6225…5eb6backed Yes1c1,922$19 inLost-$18.96175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46fa…9a8cbacked Yes1c1,922$19 inLost-$19.22156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes1c1,665$17 inLost-$16.51147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes1c1,409$14 inLost-$14.09150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes1c1,409$14 inLost-$14.09147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes1c1,281$13 inLost-$12.68120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa909…6badbacked Yes1c1,281$13 inLost-$12.68137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes1c1,281$13 inLost-$12.81140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes1c1,025$10 inLost-$10.251717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.