TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3e72…7de5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NFL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$381.12
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$117.25
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+56.3%+$214.2
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$127.62
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$411.93
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+112.8%+$359.34
Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$26.2
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.76
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$81.38
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+117.4%+$242.46
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$239.64
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$625Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$624.8
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$669Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$785.16
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.02
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$397.65
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.77
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.61
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$34.96
Will Trae Young be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+455.6%+$232.06
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+114.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$36.8
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+143.9%+$39.53
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+114.6%+$376.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+75.4%+$121.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+66.4%+$251.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$58.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyron Woodley win his boxing match against Anderson Silva?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$83.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.