TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,182

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,778 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d77…abd5backed Yes54c2,709$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.642437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes41c2,613$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.617125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes73c2,467$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.761457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No43c2,142$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.8229926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No67c1,396$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.851250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes27c1,268$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.682955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No72c1,190$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.942937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed Yes33c1,180$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.41323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-65.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes37c1,084$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.81947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x334a…832ebacked Yes35c1,069$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+93.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes36c1,046$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.561855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No71c988$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.073141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed No67c983.98$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.711428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No71c937$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.733652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4582…7699backed Yes29c886$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.941030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No49c858.5$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.6928528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa5…2380backed Yes36c826$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.361250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204d…08cbbacked No63c821$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.77683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+120.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed Yes29c801$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.292227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes29c787$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.233056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No60c784$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.054542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked No71c740$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.61758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No71c723$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.671353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed No71c702$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.582133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No31c701.93$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.8748236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf75c…838dbacked Yes38c691$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed No64c685$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.62157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0367…1c15backed Yes33c623$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…f7eabacked No64c603$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No64c595$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No63c589$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.935612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No72c582$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.422050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c1…2f84backed No65c581$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed Yes36c576$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.361540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked No73c561$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.471145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+44%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd786…857abacked Yes37c535$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.951010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7f0…669dbacked No57c527$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.612347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed Yes43c522$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.461625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes27c516$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.322450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes41c503$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.231650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked Yes45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed No64c494$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.841145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked No73c494$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.382544%11 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0ec1backed No62c491$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed Yes36c483$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.891931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc758…8153backed No63c481$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes24c471$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.042646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes30c457$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.13432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes31c445$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.951338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ae…e13abacked Yes37c442$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed Yes27c441$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.071225%3 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes31c440$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.43528.6%10 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-45.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked No64c439$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.041346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes29c428$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.122055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed No69c415$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.652152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No71c410$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.95345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes28c401$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.353240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes17c383$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.81944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298c…67fbbacked No62c379$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.021040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e7…9bc7backed No64c378$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.08475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+42.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x997f…b3c2backed Yes25c377$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.251338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d9…2df8backed Yes59c374.15$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes27c370$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.92352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c0…2e30backed Yes41c369.73$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes27c368.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5613740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked No70c368$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.41747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes14c363.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.922944.8%13 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+145.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes34c346$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4313040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…ba85backed Yes33c345$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.851450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11e9…8e90backed No65c345$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad04…dce5backed Yes35c345$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.751040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed No64c337$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.32850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes33c333$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.812733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No78c332.66$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6612923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked No75c326$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes36c320$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes18c313.07$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.979745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes23c308$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.842343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No80c308$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.073751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed No58c304$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.965444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed Yes31c303$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.932142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aaf…4bd2backed No64c302$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.33351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95bb…3e98backed Yes28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842532%8 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes29c297$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.132860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes27c295$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.653253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No78c295$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.92458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes65c294.87$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.673339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No73c294$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.382737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No33c291.89$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.2124634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes17c288$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.961346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No63c285$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.451580%12 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+89.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed Yes21c285$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.951741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed No64c282$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.521361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4628…ee62backed Yes36c279$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.441233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed No71c263$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.271643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No18c254.55$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7317821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…d68ebacked No75c253$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.251060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa498…5724backed No42c246$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+55.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes31c244$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.642441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.