Movies · resolved market
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00a012e8f00c79862d86ceb1a9cf74d1a57059fbd69634008c95c9d5495b98fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed Yes | 54c | 2,709$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.64 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 41c | 2,613$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.61 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes | 73c | 2,467$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 43c | 2,142$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.82 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 67c | 1,396$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 27c | 1,268$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.68 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 72c | 1,190$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.94 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed Yes | 33c | 1,180$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 37c | 1,084$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x334a…832ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,069$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes | 36c | 1,046$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.56 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 71c | 988$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 67c | 983.98$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 71c | 937$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.73 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…7699backed Yes | 29c | 886$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 49c | 858.5$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.69 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 36c | 826$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 63c | 821$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 29c | 801$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 29c | 787$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.23 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 60c | 784$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.05 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked No | 71c | 740$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 71c | 723$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 71c | 702$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.58 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 31c | 701.93$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.87 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…838dbacked Yes | 38c | 691$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 64c | 685$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed Yes | 33c | 623$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 64c | 603$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed No | 64c | 595$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 63c | 589$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.93 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 72c | 582$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…2f84backed No | 65c | 581$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 36c | 576$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 73c | 561$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked Yes | 37c | 535$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked No | 57c | 527$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.61 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 43c | 522$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 27c | 516$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes | 41c | 503$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 64c | 494$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked No | 73c | 494$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed No | 62c | 491$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 36c | 483$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8153backed No | 63c | 481$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 24c | 471$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 30c | 457$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes | 31c | 445$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…e13abacked Yes | 37c | 442$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 27c | 441$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 31c | 440$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…56bdbacked No | 64c | 439$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 29c | 428$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 69c | 415$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 71c | 410$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 28c | 401$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 17c | 383$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked No | 62c | 379$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed No | 64c | 378$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 25c | 377$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d9…2df8backed Yes | 59c | 374.15$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…2e30backed Yes | 41c | 369.73$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 27c | 368.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 70c | 368$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 14c | 363.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 34c | 346$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 33c | 345$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed No | 65c | 345$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 35c | 345$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 64c | 337$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 33c | 333$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 78c | 332.66$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked No | 75c | 326$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes | 36c | 320$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 18c | 313.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 23c | 308$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 80c | 308$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 58c | 304$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 31c | 303$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaf…4bd2backed No | 64c | 302$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…3e98backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 29c | 297$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 27c | 295$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 78c | 295$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 65c | 294.87$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked No | 73c | 294$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 33c | 291.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.21 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 17c | 288$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed No | 63c | 285$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 21c | 285$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed No | 64c | 282$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed Yes | 36c | 279$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 71c | 263$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 18c | 254.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.73 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked No | 75c | 253$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…5724backed No | 42c | 246$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 31c | 244$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Benny Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Clint Bentley be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Edward Berger be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will James Cameron be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Jon M. Chu be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Kathryn Bigelow be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kleber Mendonça Filho be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Mona Fastvold be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Noah Baumbach be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Park Chan-wook be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Zach Cregger be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.