Movies · resolved market
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb173f52da67def808bc1d8e72c50350297ce5e54c74292be2bd4a26d737804
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 282 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 31c | 2,504$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.48 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…0d90backed Yes | 52c | 2,271$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes | 51c | 2,186$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 57c | 1,266$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 57c | 1,253$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,209$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 43c | 1,122$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,005$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.45 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 48c | 965$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 57c | 909$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 57c | 898$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked No | 55c | 884$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 52c | 850$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 43c | 818$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 45c | 765$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes | 43c | 754$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 38c | 733.62$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.7 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 54c | 725$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed Yes | 47c | 704$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 46c | 669.64$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.31 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 39c | 653$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.62 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 48c | 646.78$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.27 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked No | 53c | 638$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…2d8abacked No | 57c | 624$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes | 49c | 617$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 55c | 600$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.42 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed Yes | 50c | 590$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa232…175fbacked No | 51c | 578$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 43c | 565$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 53c | 558$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.26 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 50c | 554$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed Yes | 43c | 553$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes | 51c | 545$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 46c | 527$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed Yes | 75c | 527$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed No | 49c | 521$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 49c | 521$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.29 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…b217backed Yes | 45c | 513$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 57c | 508$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 50c | 505$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 47c | 498.87$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.47 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 43c | 487$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked No | 50c | 484$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…52cfbacked No | 28c | 473$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed No | 50c | 467$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed Yes | 48c | 466$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 52c | 462$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed No | 50c | 456$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x334a…832ebacked Yes | 43c | 451$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 53c | 447$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.91 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 57c | 446$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 51c | 435$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 55c | 430$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 57c | 423$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.11 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 43c | 423$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 43c | 420$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +123%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 52c | 417$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.84 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 33c | 404$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 75c | 403$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed Yes | 51c | 399$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…f1ddbacked Yes | 53c | 386$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 43c | 383$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 61c | 381$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.11 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 57c | 377$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…d07cbacked No | 48c | 369$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 37c | 359$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…d20ebacked No | 57c | 358$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed No | 50c | 353$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 18c | 349.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +335.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 50c | 343$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 49c | 341$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.09 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 48c | 333$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked No | 51c | 333$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked No | 38c | 332.84$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 33c | 332.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 327.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 67c | 319$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 47c | 319$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.07 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes | 43c | 317$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 25c | 312$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed No | 25c | 308$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed No | 52c | 299.79$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 50c | 298$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa749…6a65backed Yes | 49c | 297$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 48c | 291$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed No | 51c | 285$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 49c | 282$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.82 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 43c | 264$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…8390backed Yes | 66c | 257.7$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 72c | 256$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 56c | 247.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed No | 25c | 247$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 27c | 235$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes | 71c | 234$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…8ec9backed No | 57c | 233$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Benny Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Clint Bentley be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Edward Berger be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will James Cameron be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Jon M. Chu be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kathryn Bigelow be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kleber Mendonça Filho be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Mona Fastvold be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Noah Baumbach be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Park Chan-wook be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Zach Cregger be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.