TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa232…175f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.95
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$98.67
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$243.21
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.07
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$202.17
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$34
Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.02
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.95
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$57.27
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$87.71
Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.75
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.64
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$80.95
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$57.24
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$38.72
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$77.76
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+108.3%+$275.6
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+31.6%+$16.56
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$43.74
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$294.78
Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 93m and 101m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+56.5%+$26.71
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10.93
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+52.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+141.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+187.4%+$110.2
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+95.7%+$9.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+113.2%+$95.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$43.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$121.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.