Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe49a5564a920c756d51f8b171db40a65bada3059e324eddea98dcd6305f37c47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 2c | 24,067$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.28 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…10a6backed No | 1c | 20,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…fbbebacked No | 1c | 10,045$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 23c | 8,599$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.67 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Yes | 53c | 7,002$3,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,317.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 6,578$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.79 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 64c | 5,168$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.73 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…2ef2backed No | 1c | 5,134$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 8c | 3,902$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.96 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 75c | 3,859$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 40c | 3,754$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 52c | 2,863$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.51 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 62c | 2,600$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.7 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…3ab9backed No | 1c | 2,416$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 69c | 2,354$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 68c | 2,155$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.92 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc3…ca75backed No | 7c | 2,112$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 8c | 1,974$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…57c5backed Yes | 65c | 1,905$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.39 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 33c | 1,769$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.57 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,614$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 62c | 1,566$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.37 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed Yes | 74c | 1,527$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 33c | 1,489$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.18 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 50c | 1,480$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 73c | 1,352$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.18 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 10c | 1,325$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 34c | 1,303$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.96 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…e5bdbacked No | 4c | 1,235$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 61c | 1,200$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.1 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 58c | 1,187$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.02 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,102$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 4c | 1,072$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 1,061$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 3c | 1,054$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.6 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6d58backed No | 70c | 1,000$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 47c | 999.99$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 50c | 992.66$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.66 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…27dfbacked Yes | 64c | 939.03$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked Yes | 50c | 897.52$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.52 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…08e0backed No | 4c | 872.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 4c | 815.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a1…f485backed Yes | 67c | 814.8$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 43c | 723.29$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.27 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…9c61backed No | 2c | 720.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 39c | 708.35$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.53 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e9…728cbacked No | 3c | 649.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked No | 60c | 617$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 56c | 614.13$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.92 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…01efbacked No | 48c | 600$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…49f9backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 21c | 600$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 599.98$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.39 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b6…5561backed No | 58c | 587.19$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 49c | 547.54$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.94 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 62c | 540.68$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 65c | 521.85$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.62 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…afe2backed No | 50c | 470$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 3c | 461.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 50c | 459.02$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.13 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 41c | 450$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 437.36$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.97 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…630abacked No | 14c | 435.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +88%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 38c | 418.83$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.52 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 48c | 410.89$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.49 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 57c | 404.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 50c | 403.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed No | 72c | 401.96$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c24…ae45backed No | 3c | 388.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 77c | 384.92$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 66c | 374.49$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.51 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 43c | 370.77$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.4 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked Yes | 78c | 368.87$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…cf3ebacked No | 53c | 366.81$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 45c | 364.78$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 77c | 362.23$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8950…3497backed No | 6c | 352.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…e65cbacked No | 29c | 344.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked No | 7c | 343$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…9589backed Yes | 57c | 341.49$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.49 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…7cf5backed No | 4c | 331.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…86debacked No | 11c | 318.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5790…67e8backed Yes | 67c | 297.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…1542backed Yes | 63c | 282.37$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 33c | 276.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.86 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 75c | 265.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…7a52backed No | 53c | 250$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…5dbfbacked No | 7c | 242.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 62c | 230.92$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.54 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…de76backed No | 8c | 229.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e11…43c2backed Yes | 62c | 227.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 62c | 227.03$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 74c | 225$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…5515backed No | 8c | 217.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…4b43backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…34b1backed Yes | 58c | 199.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.