TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe95c…01ef

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
29
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$571Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$570.72
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$915Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+51.4%+$470.61
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,870Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+55.4%+$1,036.37
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$147.54
First enacted funding bill include ACA premium subsidy extension?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$480.22
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$677Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+136.4%+$923.15
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,168Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+56.4%+$1,786.03
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$720
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-69.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Kings vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+81.8%+$16.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Konyaspor vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+100%+$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$298.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,650Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+57.8%+$953.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+55.5%+$277.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South Africa win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,054Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+49.9%+$526.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UL Monroe vs. Louisianabacked UL Monroe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.