Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x052f49c1edd04784eae3a7b87fb6d83171afc4a75bbe63c0e526e2d07159c284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 9,659$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.04 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 1c | 3,902$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…2715backed Yes | 2c | 3,717$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 61c | 2,575$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.48 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…36f4backed No | 76c | 2,359$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 40c | 2,190$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.55 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 61c | 2,153$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.62 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 4c | 1,643$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 7c | 1,635$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 1,384$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.34 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 42c | 1,348$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.91 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 55c | 1,333$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.53 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 52c | 1,203$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.83 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed No | 35c | 1,138$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 62c | 1,089$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.96 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 7c | 1,062$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…ab99backed No | 37c | 1,013$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…29ebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,012$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…14afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed No | 56c | 995.98$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed No | 49c | 988.41$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 43c | 950.1$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.76 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 831.27$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 792.33$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 15c | 700$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…5ea3backed Yes | 80c | 626.97$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 60c | 615.3$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.3 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 68c | 597.67$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.12 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 9c | 499.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…6d32backed Yes | 11c | 460.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…c71bbacked Yes | 72c | 426.8$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…01efbacked Yes | 67c | 399.98$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…c1ddbacked No | 70c | 390$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 72c | 374.57$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.24 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c4…1478backed Yes | 5c | 367.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…4644backed Yes | 3c | 359.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0220…a2a5backed No | 28c | 353.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +263.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 80c | 340$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.2 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1978…a10fbacked No | 30c | 338.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 54c | 312.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…9589backed No | 33c | 301.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…fc77backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…971ebacked Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…7dd4backed No | 34c | 295.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 6c | 283.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…f364backed Yes | 69c | 278.23$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 71c | 276.95$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.77 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 7c | 275.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 72c | 274.23$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 37c | 273.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 264.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cca…7c01backed No | 28c | 252.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +109%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 57c | 252.32$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…d383backed Yes | 19c | 235.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…46c8backed No | 29c | 230$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 26c | 222$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 220.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 75c | 214.37$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 208.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed No | 78c | 201.15$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 29c | 198.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.05 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked No | 77c | 195.2$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…731cbacked No | 72c | 193.69$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed No | 35c | 180.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 24c | 177.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.87 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Yes | 60c | 171.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 75c | 168.47$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 19c | 167.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…82bfbacked Yes | 6c | 162.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 60c | 156.78$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 149.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa725…996ebacked Yes | 67c | 149.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 29c | 149.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 142.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 60c | 140.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…7e45backed No | 72c | 131.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…5899backed Yes | 15c | 125.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed No | 38c | 124.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 50c | 122.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…b60cbacked Yes | 49c | 119.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…2059backed Yes | 41c | 115.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…69b6backed No | 26c | 114.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 31c | 113.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 77c | 112$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…f6e4backed No | 35c | 110.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…f2ebbacked No | 37c | 109$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…fd27backed No | 30c | 104.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 77c | 103.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 67c | 100.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…2ea8backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…3105backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…0290backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.