TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c9,659$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.041879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes1c3,902$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb734…2715backed Yes2c3,717$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No61c2,575$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.485253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2430…36f4backed No76c2,359$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.861250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes40c2,190$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.5542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes61c2,153$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.628641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes4c1,643$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes7c1,635$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes19c1,384$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.347817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes42c1,348$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.9156336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes55c1,333$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.5317740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No52c1,203$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.8351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e60…3736backed No35c1,138$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.861553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+1,042.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes62c1,089$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.9634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes7c1,062$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1247…ab99backed No37c1,013$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6747…29ebbacked Yes3c1,012$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c5f…14afbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80df…3407backed No56c995.98$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.671546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7059…9549backed No49c988.41$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.561353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+32.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No43c950.1$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.7610150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes21c831.27$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c792.33$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes15c700$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.253935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ef…5ea3backed Yes80c626.97$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes60c615.3$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.323525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.220239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes68c597.67$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.126336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes9c499.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d3c…6d32backed Yes11c460.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ab…c71bbacked Yes72c426.8$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.31758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe95c…01efbacked Yes67c399.98$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-69.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b4c…c1ddbacked No70c390$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+103.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes72c374.57$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.248739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c4…1478backed Yes5c367.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…4644backed Yes3c359.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0220…a2a5backed No28c353.8$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+263.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes80c340$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.23672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1978…a10fbacked No30c338.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+238.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes54c312.17$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1709930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4a…9589backed No33c301.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+118.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x088d…fc77backed No24c300$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2281100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a3…971ebacked Yes76c300$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34e5…7dd4backed No34c295.71$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes6c283.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.322737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c8…f364backed Yes69c278.23$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes71c276.95$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.772387%20 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+43.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed Yes7c275.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked No72c274.23$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.583253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No37c273.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.7613543.7%59 W · 76 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c264.2$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0434432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8cca…7c01backed No28c252.92$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+109%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes57c252.32$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8917755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb20b…d383backed Yes19c235.7$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5518…46c8backed No29c230$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+105.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No26c222$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.285635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes12c220.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2931719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No75c214.37$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3150130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c208.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.641,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…2312backed No78c201.15$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No29c198.92$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0518151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked No77c195.2$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.662740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b88…731cbacked No72c193.69$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed No35c180.58$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed No24c177.29$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.879334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Yes60c171.16$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No75c168.47$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.854678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed No19c167.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.423941%16 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95d9…82bfbacked Yes6c162.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed No60c156.78$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.513135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c149.91$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa725…996ebacked Yes67c149.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-59.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes29c149.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.529532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes13c142.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes60c140.78$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5623839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe1…7e45backed No72c131.84$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.61172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf926…5899backed Yes15c125.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1980%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf386…1158backed Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd36a…ecf5backed No38c124.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-55.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked No50c122.54$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.271957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a4…b60cbacked Yes49c119.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.01250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf9…2059backed Yes41c115.11$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.53825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-63.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bf5…69b6backed No26c114.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed No31c113.26$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.26633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No77c112$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.731050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…f6e4backed No35c110.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+90.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca1…f2ebbacked No37c109$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.671136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa9e…fd27backed No30c104.02$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+235.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No77c103.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.193148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes67c100.06$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.973933.3%13 W · 26 L-7.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0b95…2ea8backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82bb…3105backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8c…0290backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3543…c63fbacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+101.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.510151.5%52 W · 49 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+35.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4132243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5816440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.