Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb214c760a2ee006f66ab29c685b00982c10213dc70401fbb4152452e4b10b5f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,021,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,131,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,021,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd86b…1924backed No | 0c | 587,160$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 0c | 351,523$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.04 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 0c | 309,900$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.75 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…d88dbacked No | 0c | 272,601$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd95a…f86dbacked No | 0c | 187,086$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…edfdbacked No | 0c | 149,155$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked No | 0c | 83,856$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 2c | 81,060$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.39 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed No | 2c | 65,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +820.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 5c | 60,019$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.7 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 0c | 47,422$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…c0b6backed No | 3c | 43,941$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 2c | 41,233$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.54 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef4…3c7ebacked No | 0c | 39,613$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 1c | 33,164$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…63ffbacked No | 0c | 32,918$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 3c | 32,422$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.61 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed No | 4c | 31,396$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 2c | 30,256$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.88 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 2c | 27,997$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.94 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 26,500$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.17 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…bcf1backed No | 0c | 24,651$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…e23cbacked No | 0c | 23,781$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…5b9cbacked No | 1c | 22,334$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 5c | 21,917$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.66 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 0c | 21,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 1c | 20,493$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed No | 0c | 19,833$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 1c | 19,601$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 2c | 17,997$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.95 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…acfabacked No | 0c | 17,800$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 16,532$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.12 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed No | 0c | 15,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…9de3backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 3c | 14,443$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.51 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…fce1backed No | 0c | 14,056$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 4c | 13,361$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.78 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 6c | 12,901$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.92 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 2c | 12,500$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 3c | 11,110$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.3 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…c1edbacked No | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…2a56backed No | 0c | 10,295$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 2c | 10,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…ee32backed No | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 3c | 9,503$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.06 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 2c | 9,450$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.32 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 22c | 8,531$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.9 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 6c | 8,454$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.87 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 7c | 7,900$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.05 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948c…42eebacked No | 2c | 7,859$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 2c | 7,767$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…8a8abacked No | 0c | 7,235$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…b838backed No | 0c | 7,150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…a06abacked No | 7c | 7,147$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 2c | 6,638$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 3c | 6,190$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.93 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…e658backed No | 0c | 6,175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…34cdbacked No | 0c | 6,080$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed No | 0c | 6,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b5…bdcabacked No | 1c | 6,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…74adbacked No | 1c | 5,980$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e23…ac52backed No | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 2c | 5,495$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 2c | 5,352$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3d…d3e6backed No | 0c | 5,230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 3c | 5,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd302…b32abacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 2c | 5,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 3c | 5,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed No | 11c | 4,818$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.97 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0289…6a0bbacked No | 10c | 4,446$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 2c | 4,250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 3c | 4,016$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.42 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…14f0backed No | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed No | 3c | 3,959$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…cb25backed No | 1c | 3,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 6c | 3,822$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.35 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…ecf2backed No | 5c | 3,794$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 7c | 3,737$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…eaf4backed No | 4c | 3,711$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked No | 3c | 3,468$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 3c | 3,458$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…61fdbacked No | 11c | 3,456$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 4c | 3,265$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…1a14backed No | 2c | 3,001$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 1c | 3,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 2c | 3,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 20c | 2,256$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.56 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 3c | 2,222$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 2c | 2,222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 7c | 2,094$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.13 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 71c | 2,040$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.37 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed No | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 2c | 1,922$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 3c | 1,900$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 4c | 1,764$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 2c | 1,645$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked No | 2c | 1,610$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.