TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$228,007
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,007 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfbd…21d2backed No1c23,290$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.35698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf311…fe1bbacked No3c12,302$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No2c9,086$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c8,200$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.531,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cb…f7bdbacked No3c5,866$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.351723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked No2c5,405$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.122123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ef…5ea3backed No5c5,317$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.321533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No4c4,386$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.399749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked No3c4,222$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked No2c3,349$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.136728.4%19 W · 48 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No8c2,634$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1547334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9046…6b25backed No5c2,535$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e4d…1acebacked No3c2,470$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.62025%5 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No1c2,398$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9512138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8720…83b2backed No2c2,204$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No1c1,948$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.521915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f6f…8328backed No1c1,880$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e46…2819backed No3c1,550$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No2c1,547$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1777636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No5c1,433$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7135355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2039…f96dbacked No2c1,233$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a6…5d97backed No9c1,172$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No3c1,129$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.66296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a5…8805backed No2c1,109$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1886…d87fbacked No1c1,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…baa0backed No2c1,009$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9044…6364backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+156.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc938…b8e2backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked No2c1,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224327.9%12 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No13c986.94$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8840939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No1c969.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4419428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No57c965$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.99955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd001…8145backed No4c903.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes72c838.76$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1156336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6301…06a6backed No3c719.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1917…75a6backed No2c709.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.452045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x392e…8589backed No9c665$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.02757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf5…0b82backed No2c588.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdea…6951backed No4c569.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac7e…ce88backed No7c557.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No27c531.4$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3758927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafff…1307backed No9c530.81$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f1…c502backed No4c514.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+45.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No4c505$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.388727.6%24 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5836…e8c9backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed No4c422.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8214420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4efb…76a0backed No12c416.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No26c399.96$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe07a…a610backed No6c394.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.69425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x087a…48c4backed No8c385$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked No13c354.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.693633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1319…b434backed No30c338.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dd…3c69backed No39c327.34$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3939…68cfbacked No3c316.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-87.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x46be…4ad3backed No14c285.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7059…9549backed No5c284.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+32.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No6c278.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8726616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x857d…9f81backed No7c259.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7c…56b0backed No39c258.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc795…6b62backed No10c238$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c9…2cd6backed No24c207.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbee4…2f55backed No35c199.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91f…a82bbacked No17c198.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3360%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes54c184.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe409…aa26backed No15c177.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.071136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…3005backed No42c168.04$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked No17c166.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ed4…03d8backed No37c161.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f27…b2f8backed No11c161.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No11c153.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0436626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes63c149.97$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1917934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe631…7b90backed No10c148.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9057…c47ebacked No44c138.59$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb734…2715backed Yes74c135.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ad…d823backed No15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-59.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9b…76afbacked No15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x997e…2d1cbacked No25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x619d…3323backed No18c118.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af3…3ef6backed No20c107.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de1…bac6backed No39c102.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed Yes60c100.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.825123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac25…14d4backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33b3…d03dbacked No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed No31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes59c99.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe980…2398backed No15c98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec0…6d2abacked No55c91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No31c84.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9940828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd09…da63backed No49c74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.241145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd56…ac76backed No21c66.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+67.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed No49c62.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f86…81e0backed No39c54.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd817…fb0cbacked No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad8…1b64backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdb…3365backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154035%14 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7675…976ebacked No40c49.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes33c44.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3038237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd59e…5818backed No34c44.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4027…ac7fbacked No35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.