Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06801ce7d3c4bd57fd90cbae5d6783040547117063046856100547fab695f56b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 1c | 23,290$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.35 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked No | 3c | 12,302$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 2c | 9,086$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 8,200$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.53 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked No | 3c | 5,866$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 2c | 5,405$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…5ea3backed No | 5c | 5,317$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 4c | 4,386$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked No | 3c | 4,222$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 2c | 3,349$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 8c | 2,634$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.15 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9046…6b25backed No | 5c | 2,535$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…1acebacked No | 3c | 2,470$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 1c | 2,398$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…83b2backed No | 2c | 2,204$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 1c | 1,948$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…8328backed No | 1c | 1,880$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…2819backed No | 3c | 1,550$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 1,547$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 5c | 1,433$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…f96dbacked No | 2c | 1,233$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…5d97backed No | 9c | 1,172$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 3c | 1,129$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…8805backed No | 2c | 1,109$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked No | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed No | 2c | 1,009$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…6364backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…b8e2backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 13c | 986.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 1c | 969.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 57c | 965$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.9 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…8145backed No | 4c | 903.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 72c | 838.76$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.11 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…06a6backed No | 3c | 719.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…75a6backed No | 2c | 709.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392e…8589backed No | 9c | 665$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…0b82backed No | 2c | 588.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed No | 4c | 569.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…ce88backed No | 7c | 557.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 531.4$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafff…1307backed No | 9c | 530.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed No | 4c | 514.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 4c | 505$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…e8c9backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed No | 4c | 422.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed No | 12c | 416.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 399.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…a610backed No | 6c | 394.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed No | 8c | 385$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 13c | 354.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1319…b434backed No | 30c | 338.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…3c69backed No | 39c | 327.34$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked No | 3c | 316.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…4ad3backed No | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed No | 5c | 284.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 6c | 278.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x857d…9f81backed No | 7c | 259.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…56b0backed No | 39c | 258.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc795…6b62backed No | 10c | 238$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…2cd6backed No | 24c | 207.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee4…2f55backed No | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…a82bbacked No | 17c | 198.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes | 54c | 184.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…aa26backed No | 15c | 177.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…3005backed No | 42c | 168.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 17c | 166.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…03d8backed No | 37c | 161.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…b2f8backed No | 11c | 161.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 11c | 153.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 63c | 149.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe631…7b90backed No | 10c | 148.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 44c | 138.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…2715backed Yes | 74c | 135.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…d823backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…76afbacked No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…2d1cbacked No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619d…3323backed No | 18c | 118.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…3ef6backed No | 20c | 107.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de1…bac6backed No | 39c | 102.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 60c | 100.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…14d4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…2398backed No | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…6d2abacked No | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 84.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd09…da63backed No | 49c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd56…ac76backed No | 21c | 66.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 49c | 62.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f86…81e0backed No | 39c | 54.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…fb0cbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…1b64backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…3365backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7675…976ebacked No | 40c | 49.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 33c | 44.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…5818backed No | 34c | 44.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…ac7fbacked No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.