Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf96e96c977d8ce0e76106647befbe9a330eb13517ea08b5f3baa09e8f1a17644
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56fa…d820backed Yes | 1c | 6,503$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed No | 73c | 5,025$3,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.17 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…d376backed Yes | 19c | 4,493$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes | 1c | 2,534$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 22c | 1,869$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.64 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 28c | 1,730$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.75 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,442$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 63c | 1,106$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.51 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,050$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 13c | 788.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 36c | 780.68$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.47 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 25c | 762.74$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.94 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 79c | 755.42$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.42 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 8c | 734.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 12c | 659.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 640.26$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 10c | 610.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 9c | 604.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 20c | 599.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…63b4backed Yes | 52c | 582.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 65c | 565.88$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.88 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes | 37c | 499.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 22c | 491.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 57c | 483.95$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.9 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…0437backed Yes | 2c | 477.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 10c | 400.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…7074backed Yes | 12c | 362.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42f…be79backed No | 65c | 335.6$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc635…abe6backed Yes | 39c | 311.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 14c | 276.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…9457backed No | 65c | 268.77$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 11c | 252.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed No | 79c | 251.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…231dbacked No | 64c | 251.51$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…5a58backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 35c | 249.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked Yes | 18c | 243.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…f4d3backed Yes | 43c | 235.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 34c | 230$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 25c | 200.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 35c | 199.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491a…27ccbacked No | 63c | 199.96$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 194.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 51c | 177.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae0…910cbacked No | 68c | 165.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…2590backed No | 63c | 156.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…c2d3backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 69c | 145.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 63c | 137.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7a…77ecbacked No | 73c | 136.47$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f499backed No | 78c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 14c | 128.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…1c15backed Yes | 42c | 120.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 30c | 119.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 27c | 109.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…c351backed Yes | 38c | 106.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…eef0backed Yes | 15c | 98.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 97.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…a12cbacked Yes | 24c | 85.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…a9aabacked No | 66c | 79.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 25c | 77.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…6615backed Yes | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d2…04bcbacked Yes | 54c | 64.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe737…060dbacked No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 24c | 61.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…a0e2backed Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 57c | 60.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked Yes | 25c | 59.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 56.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed No | 79c | 55.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 37c | 53.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…766fbacked No | 60c | 50.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…acc6backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…5b6fbacked No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…ef18backed No | 64c | 44.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…9035backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d89…36f5backed No | 57c | 43.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 40.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…9ce2backed No | 64c | 38.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8332backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…40c4backed Yes | 47c | 32.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…6a7cbacked No | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe594…1e7ebacked No | 64c | 31.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…b0e4backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e1…7aa5backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7254…59eabacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.