TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,755
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,755 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56fa…d820backed Yes1c6,503$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eb1…fc21backed No73c5,025$3,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.172387%20 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+43.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x06ab…d376backed Yes19c4,493$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes1c2,534$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.941637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes22c1,869$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.6423839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes28c1,730$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.7514335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c1,442$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No63c1,106$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.5117646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes25c1,050$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26523525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes13c788.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb244…95fbbacked Yes36c780.68$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.475729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed Yes25c762.74$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9421333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No79c755.42$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.428056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes8c734.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.574318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3039…8a62backed Yes12c659.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80478.5%4 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes18c640.26$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.131719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes10c610.34$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5240433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes9c604.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes20c599.98$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.197025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ef…63b4backed Yes52c582.34$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No65c565.88$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.885455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes37c499.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1851662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes22c491.93$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e67…77adbacked No57c483.95$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.97553.3%40 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ca…0437backed Yes2c477.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes10c400.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.47850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef2e…7074backed Yes12c362.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7860%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe42f…be79backed No65c335.6$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.46650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc635…abe6backed Yes39c311.93$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes14c276.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.071040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1b…9457backed No65c268.77$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes11c252.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.727817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d3…52b9backed No79c251.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdc…231dbacked No64c251.51$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2814520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26c…5a58backed No63c250$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes35c249.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.53935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked Yes18c243.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.244245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd4…f4d3backed Yes43c235.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes34c230$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.28739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe86c…bb51backed Yes25c200.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502646.2%12 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+69.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes22c200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes35c199.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9917128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x491a…27ccbacked No63c199.96$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.98650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes11c194.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3426616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed Yes51c177.02$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.136111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae0…910cbacked No68c165.87$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f3a…2590backed No63c156.03$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1992…c2d3backed No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5c9…586abacked No69c145.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.361758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes25c140$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c6…38b6backed No63c137.87$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.314753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b7a…77ecbacked No73c136.47$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a66…f499backed No78c130$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes14c128.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2320235.6%72 W · 130 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f45…1c15backed Yes42c120.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes30c119.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3616046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes21c110$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.818833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes27c109.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b24…c351backed Yes38c106.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7940%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2621926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce7b…b13ebacked No56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe107…eef0backed Yes15c98.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c97.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes24c89.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.96725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x17b2…a12cbacked Yes24c85.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42d0…304dbacked No22c80$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.47619.7%15 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84b…a9aabacked No66c79.8$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb89…9469backed No25c77.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.296546.2%30 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ff7…6615backed Yes74c67.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+28.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9d2…04bcbacked Yes54c64.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe737…060dbacked No62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.521963.2%12 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x135c…85e8backed Yes24c61.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x757b…a0e2backed Yes36c61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick56cpaid-75.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No57c60.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.316173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xffce…e88bbacked Yes25c59.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c56.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.386542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed No79c55.61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.92966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes37c53.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ac9…766fbacked No60c50.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa34…acc6backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0638…5b6fbacked No63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed No55c44.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.244940.8%20 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf265…ef18backed No64c44.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b62…9035backed No68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d89…36f5backed No57c43.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.58850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c40.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.234234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…9ce2backed No64c38.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x792d…8332backed No46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.92744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+105.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0973…40c4backed Yes47c32.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ea…6a7cbacked No64c31.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe594…1e7ebacked No64c31.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…b0e4backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc61c…9314backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771850%9 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9e1…7aa5backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7254…59eabacked Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.