Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc92c644c2519cffa9421cf9804347b2c47c4662bc05371fd3410f5f1423f0738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 29c | 3,613$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.95 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,914$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 26c | 1,480$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.99 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 79c | 851.88$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.57 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked Yes | 67c | 813.34$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 64c | 781.22$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.22 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…f975backed No | 61c | 534.66$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 488.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 12c | 473.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 25c | 459.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…d644backed No | 67c | 447.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…448abacked No | 69c | 412.14$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede9…d9b0backed No | 60c | 336.54$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 67c | 328.22$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 28c | 322.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…422dbacked No | 53c | 309.2$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 53c | 294.44$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db9…4100backed Yes | 15c | 273.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 22c | 239.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 220.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 74c | 217.52$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 9c | 217.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…817ebacked Yes | 50c | 207.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3843…ac78backed No | 44c | 201.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…fb8cbacked Yes | 44c | 198.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 36c | 193.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 24c | 189.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 26c | 182.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 25c | 178.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 178.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed No | 62c | 165.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe244…ff50backed No | 60c | 158.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 47c | 155.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 26c | 153.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…eda0backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 56c | 121$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 28c | 113.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf895…7aafbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 23c | 94.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 87.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed No | 72c | 75.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…2da8backed No | 57c | 69.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 40c | 66.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 22c | 62.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…12b4backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 24c | 59.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed No | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc111…8fb6backed No | 75c | 53.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…3f1ebacked No | 66c | 52.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 74c | 51.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 30c | 47.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 27c | 46.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…fe7dbacked Yes | 28c | 46.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 78c | 42.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 41.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked No | 61c | 40.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 51c | 40.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd359…0e9ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 51c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 70c | 39.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c5…8bd3backed No | 74c | 39.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 60c | 38.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…23c5backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc8…8794backed No | 77c | 32.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…8aeebacked No | 62c | 32.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…eed8backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…30bdbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6acf…fe26backed No | 78c | 29.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…2fb3backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…0ce1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…ae4abacked No | 51c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…a694backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d89…36f5backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…fe0dbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.