Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5009d64f3e4b3a0485d0f18632a800100d3ab171a199b6363b8b76418ca76c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 7,400$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 3c | 6,100$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 5,562$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…36f4backed No | 8c | 4,886$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 3c | 3,626$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…5246backed No | 1c | 3,505$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…4644backed No | 0c | 3,260$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 36c | 3,204$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.07 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 2c | 2,727$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 17c | 1,843$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.21 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 2c | 1,809$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 4c | 1,374$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 15c | 1,254$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.62 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6039…03a0backed No | 13c | 1,239$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked No | 6c | 1,200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed No | 20c | 1,080$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.85 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 77c | 938.18$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.58 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed No | 21c | 931.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 50c | 918$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.35 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 70c | 873.1$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.74 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…2c53backed No | 28c | 859.85$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb776…0297backed No | 41c | 820.6$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 66c | 638.71$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.22 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 6c | 602.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 77c | 567.6$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 21c | 562.95$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2d24backed No | 8c | 526.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…33c5backed No | 50c | 508.97$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…cf9bbacked Yes | 50c | 499.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 19c | 497.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 58c | 468.32$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.59 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…ffe8backed No | 23c | 441.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked No | 16c | 423.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…de5ebacked No | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed No | 12c | 343.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…7642backed No | 32c | 315.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 32c | 314.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 19c | 290$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…8ccbbacked No | 9c | 274.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 18c | 267$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 55c | 254.44$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 246.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 79c | 243.95$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 220$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 47c | 210.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…b88abacked No | 49c | 205.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 22c | 200.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…b67bbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…f2b3backed No | 46c | 189.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 60c | 186.07$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b1…6a01backed No | 18c | 183.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…e89ebacked No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c16…2bebbacked Yes | 57c | 173.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacd…e029backed No | 20c | 172.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 171.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a718backed No | 50c | 166.14$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f5f1backed No | 41c | 139.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4754…420dbacked Yes | 70c | 139.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…f657backed Yes | 77c | 138.01$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…426abacked Yes | 60c | 126.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 41c | 124.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 67c | 121.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…3105backed No | 17c | 115.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked No | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc01b…615ebacked No | 19c | 113.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed No | 10c | 111.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 20c | 109.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe19c…0b8dbacked Yes | 75c | 108.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed No | 42c | 103.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…a3e4backed No | 19c | 102.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6375…1659backed No | 42c | 94.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…9738backed No | 43c | 92.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…f4d1backed No | 36c | 92.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 53c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65dc…0b11backed No | 16c | 86.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…ec9abacked No | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked Yes | 55c | 80.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 39c | 77.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdb…d13abacked No | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 66c | 74.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 73.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 28c | 70.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab7f…d263backed No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…c307backed No | 28c | 61.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…8ae5backed No | 51c | 61.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc052…8524backed No | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…a211backed No | 42c | 54.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 78c | 54.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…51a3backed No | 22c | 53.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.