Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c67a59ec7fdcec4ca205d380e5524e9e843a2a5b57bad64dfbe104453278ac1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked No | 5c | 12,761$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 2c | 11,964$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.11 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 15c | 9,142$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 1c | 6,371$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed No | 6c | 5,199$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 5,153$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…d476backed No | 2c | 4,481$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked No | 1c | 4,167$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 12c | 4,056$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.47 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…687ebacked No | 1c | 3,368$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…1bf6backed No | 1c | 2,912$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…ba7fbacked No | 2c | 2,893$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked No | 23c | 2,500$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed No | 8c | 2,452$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked No | 7c | 2,425$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a9…b8a7backed No | 7c | 2,346$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 2,318$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 1c | 2,266$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeff7…3eb8backed No | 1c | 2,010$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 75c | 1,593$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.05 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 31c | 1,408$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.28 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 4c | 1,295$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61c…f19cbacked No | 5c | 1,212$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…4d25backed No | 5c | 1,194$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked No | 16c | 1,150$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…943bbacked No | 3c | 1,137$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6db4…b760backed No | 10c | 1,116$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bf…20d3backed No | 1c | 957.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee4…2f55backed No | 38c | 951.18$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 67c | 905.14$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.2 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 60c | 704.06$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.63 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0d…37ecbacked No | 7c | 697.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 63c | 682.7$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.04 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 65c | 614.4$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c7…43eabacked No | 9c | 601.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…bbc5backed No | 18c | 590$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…158fbacked No | 2c | 570.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 20c | 500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 66c | 472.89$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.54 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 453.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 37c | 432.54$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.59 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…b238backed No | 11c | 365.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 45c | 323.66$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.66 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked No | 8c | 306.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 45c | 302.66$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…3804backed Yes | 65c | 300.88$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f054backed No | 5c | 286.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed No | 20c | 250.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 62c | 223.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…b57fbacked No | 24c | 209.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…e94fbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…2715backed Yes | 72c | 166.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…aa26backed No | 20c | 155.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…509ebacked No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392e…8589backed No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 144.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…3234backed Yes | 71c | 136.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…eff3backed No | 31c | 134.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 124.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 14c | 112.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…3695backed No | 18c | 108.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 24c | 89.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…1f85backed No | 20c | 84.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…3365backed Yes | 63c | 83.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…467fbacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad1…35d0backed No | 27c | 79.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…5ea3backed Yes | 77c | 77.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 25c | 75.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e16…5218backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…7e94backed Yes | 79c | 62.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…d6f0backed No | 48c | 62.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…03d8backed No | 37c | 58.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…2cd6backed No | 36c | 55.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 37c | 55.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 74c | 55.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 74c | 55.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…d823backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed No | 48c | 52.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe89b…9041backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd09…da63backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619d…3323backed No | 35c | 48.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked Yes | 64c | 44.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3678…eb33backed No | 33c | 42.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 34c | 41.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 37c | 39.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 52c | 36.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…40e2backed No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…b598backed Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked No | 62c | 32.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.