TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,050

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4792…1c11backed No0c80,149$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x637a…6aacbacked No2c7,357$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No3c4,079$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.422737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e60…3736backed Yes59c2,658$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.211553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+1,042.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed No1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No3c2,000$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.95639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes57c1,460$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.666549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes75c1,251$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.0414335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8882…e1febacked No2c1,073$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ea…a36abacked No2c1,053$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed No42c999.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4202045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5518…46c8backed No9c878.36$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+105.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No45c850.69$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.8910150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked No2c750$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.25287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e2b…b6c5backed No48c681.3$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd64…ce44backed No6c678.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…f6e4backed No51c447.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+90.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee8b…1610backed No3c441.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No37c420.51$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes54c399$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5434440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No34c361.86$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.167817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes54c351.63$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked No32c349.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9912…4f03backed No43c302.38$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.05742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes54c299.98$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9942738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked No41c265.14$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8412525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbe1…7e45backed No53c263.7$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004153.7%22 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes70c225.38$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.534678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No30c222$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.65635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeda3…bdbebacked No47c210.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f65…9ad1backed No33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa48d…688fbacked Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab2d…2ed0backed No44c181.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.951741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No38c155.78$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.575253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked No13c155$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08d3…ee39backed No35c147.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+77.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62c4…1478backed No17c146.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d63…348dbacked No41c145.23$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+51.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No15c131.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250d…6d16backed No43c120$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1115331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4717646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes56c99.98$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.994151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes66c99.97$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.993935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes58c89.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.434035%14 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc9d4…75ecbacked No39c86.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed No24c85.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+46.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cf6…d964backed No43c84.14$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2541…60acbacked Yes78c83.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.683537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes58c83.4$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.033933.3%13 W · 26 L-7.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x310d…bed0backed Yes62c81.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.226944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes68c81.17$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.977353.4%39 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a8b…dc39backed No36c74.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…d808backed No41c73.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+55.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes75c70.35$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.556657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9da3…3321backed No32c68.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+105.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f96…a226backed No32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204264.3%27 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cca…7c01backed No53c62.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+109%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91b0…4da1backed No45c61.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc166…34b8backed No40c61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No23c60.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9118151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ee…5e08backed No51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eca…b53cbacked No53c58.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes77c57.82$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No36c57.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c53.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes36c51.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0220239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93e0…58f0backed No39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1917…75a6backed No23c51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x396a…b1d3backed No39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9016…e132backed Yes64c46.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.981936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9028…1eedbacked No47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed No27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.69334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa45f…271fbacked No49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9724…6229backed No51c39.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15cc…7f61backed No51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e2…5aa2backed No51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…d3e0backed No42c35.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed No53c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.491553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+74.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4db…b966backed No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103650%18 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes60c31.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.366046.7%28 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfe5…cf64backed No42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.685725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c57…3d13backed Yes69c28.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2241…4017backed Yes72c27.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.64757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x365e…4f29backed No45c26.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a6e…fe42backed Yes77c25.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceca…0d91backed Yes68c25.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3129…22edbacked No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696f…254dbacked No42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8245…a426backed Yes57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.851145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe015…de6ebacked Yes77c22.35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.14933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes63c22.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1417755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f23…8be6backed Yes59c20.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.342356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf9…2059backed Yes63c20.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-63.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.