Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc66bc1e21753082bf38b66bcb40c6e612c505c6fe1b4e44c579d1e5bee552cac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 76c | 1,397$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.03 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 5c | 830.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 11c | 695.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 641.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 41c | 524.03$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.46 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed No | 50c | 500$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 55c | 449.41$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.45 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…6a10backed Yes | 54c | 370.26$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 70c | 299.97$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 18c | 251$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed No | 65c | 235.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 59c | 231$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…2d09backed No | 59c | 212.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 40c | 203$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 8c | 144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 30c | 139.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 40c | 129$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 10c | 117.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…acc4backed Yes | 49c | 112.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed Yes | 44c | 94.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3c…cf9cbacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda9…35c9backed No | 77c | 84.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 79.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 31c | 76.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 56c | 74.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…d3e0backed No | 55c | 73.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e61ebacked No | 34c | 70.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…db6fbacked Yes | 76c | 64.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ace…9850backed No | 41c | 62.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c7…43eabacked No | 61c | 61.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed No | 35c | 57.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76e1…c5aabacked No | 62c | 51.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…a1abbacked No | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed No | 61c | 49.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…59d8backed Yes | 50c | 48.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 34c | 46.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…5880backed No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…2f4dbacked No | 48c | 41.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacda…ddacbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb4…9bc0backed No | 63c | 39.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fa…33d4backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…a8d3backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…8919backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 61c | 33.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…2a7bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 62c | 32.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f5…78b7backed No | 46c | 32.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…de6ebacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…3365backed Yes | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…dec0backed No | 40c | 29.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed No | 63c | 27.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed No | 57c | 26.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…e305backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbb…77eebacked No | 72c | 24.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…4931backed No | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…5275backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 73c | 18.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.