Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e2146477192649c4d11f5b9826d4a5c2a73cd126542451ac1249e9bd06ab5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc0…a8a0backed No | 1c | 13,686$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…8800backed No | 2c | 5,174$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 1c | 5,075$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…d820backed No | 1c | 4,723$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed No | 2c | 3,575$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…2053backed No | 1c | 3,456$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a69…e836backed No | 2c | 2,875$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed No | 1c | 2,792$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 16c | 1,874$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…9573backed No | 77c | 1,709$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…6279backed Yes | 31c | 1,434$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 69c | 1,433$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.77 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,232$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.34 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 1c | 1,167$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked No | 69c | 1,101$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed No | 69c | 1,062$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f32…583fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 30c | 979.48$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.53 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked No | 69c | 898$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes | 31c | 887$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 32c | 887$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed Yes | 31c | 874$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…8ec9backed Yes | 31c | 860$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…a6aabacked Yes | 31c | 820$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…6bd8backed No | 2c | 781.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 69c | 769$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.61 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fcd2backed Yes | 31c | 762$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 69c | 745$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…21ebbacked No | 75c | 740$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaf…4bd2backed Yes | 31c | 662$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 44cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked No | 69c | 656$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked No | 69c | 615$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed No | 69c | 606.54$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 31c | 589$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.41 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed No | 9c | 580.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 69c | 576.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.89 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 31c | 559$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3249…0328backed No | 66c | 493.98$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked No | 68c | 484$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed No | 69c | 439$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 31c | 433$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 37c | 402.14$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.54 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…3913backed Yes | 49c | 402.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 399.98$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 69c | 379$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 31c | 379$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 64c | 378.46$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.3 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 31c | 370$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 32c | 345.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.79 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked No | 51c | 321.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cd…f8c1backed No | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed Yes | 31c | 297$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked Yes | 32c | 296$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed No | 69c | 279$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 43c | 270$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 38c | 254.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.03 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 248.72$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…ea4ebacked No | 69c | 236$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 68cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 34c | 224.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.78 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 69c | 213$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 64c | 210$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…82e8backed Yes | 35c | 201.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…7d8dbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491a…27ccbacked No | 67c | 199.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 27c | 176.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 36c | 176.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 33c | 167$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67cb…0569backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 28c | 148.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 30c | 145.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…73f6backed No | 71c | 140.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 45c | 131.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7a…77ecbacked No | 68c | 130.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 41c | 128.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 19c | 124.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 31c | 113$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 57c | 99.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 57c | 87.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked No | 69c | 82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 44c | 80.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc635…abe6backed Yes | 40c | 78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd163…b679backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…eb54backed No | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb5…7dcbbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f5…e543backed No | 73c | 68.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…0b5ebacked No | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545c…a894backed No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 32c | 55.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…4092backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.