TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,887 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e66…283abacked No1c1,626$23 inLost-$23.292740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac3f…4931backed No2c1,532$36 inLost-$36540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b23…39fdbacked No3c1,161$35 inLost-$34.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes57c872.93$500 inWon+$372.9310861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x02b0…0f82backed No17c706.26$120 inLost-$120742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d6…fba0backed No20c500.07$99 inLost-$98.840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes56c300$168 inWon+$132.373672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed No74c300$221 inLost-$221.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f9…3da7backed No4c250$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes37c230.52$86 inWon+$144.5856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed No56c179.28$101 inLost-$1011070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f9…2697backed Yes32c156.82$50 inWon+$107.163432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes32c155.45$50 inWon+$105.258641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…5880backed No74c151.43$112 inLost-$1121070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed No62c150.01$93 inLost-$92.636657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e89…bb29backed No75c130$97 inLost-$97.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2f…d648backed Yes19c100$19 inWon+$81366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick18cpaid+194.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes16c80$13 inWon+$67.219534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e19…1767backed No68c73.53$50 inLost-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1847…355dbacked Yes30c66.46$20 inWon+$46.462334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes27c65.24$17 inWon+$47.931719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes28c45$13 inWon+$32.42850%14 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No32c40$13 inLost-$12.815643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x851e…2134backed Yes53c39.99$21 inWon+$18.992634.6%9 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+51.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No30c39$12 inLost-$11.710121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…143bbacked No65c37$24 inLost-$24.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x012e…5f25backed Yes35c37$13 inWon+$24.052528%7 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f1…0c17backed No69c34.71$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacde…64cfbacked No62c32.26$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f4…4cccbacked No63c31.75$20 inLost-$201050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d8…b5f4backed No66c30.13$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes40c29.99$12 inWon+$1813140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8147…5039backed No68c29.41$20 inLost-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11cb…2368backed No72c26.39$19 inLost-$19250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5352…a8d3backed No75c21.33$16 inLost-$161457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked No52c19.59$10 inLost-$10.192634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb254…a82dbacked No80c13.79$11 inLost-$11250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d40…f75cbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.