Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ae894480acabe6efb0bfe3e13bcd422c59eb9c482238f7cbdd6fd0bb5dc8553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 6,853$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed No | 68c | 3,858$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.44 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…ab25backed Yes | 51c | 2,581$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 13c | 2,357$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.18 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 38c | 2,195$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.77 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 6c | 1,037$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 21c | 952.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 7c | 936.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 7c | 927.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 742.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…bd5cbacked Yes | 13c | 625.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…45eebacked Yes | 48c | 623.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 32c | 616.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 8c | 536.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 11c | 470.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 10c | 450$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…ed38backed No | 79c | 380.82$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 27c | 369.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 38c | 336$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 19c | 319.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes | 40c | 282$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…6232backed No | 61c | 277$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 60c | 268$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 9c | 265.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 8c | 260$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 61c | 235$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 72c | 233.25$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 48c | 209.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 76c | 206$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032d…cc38backed Yes | 37c | 201.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes | 15c | 193$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 62c | 193$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes | 39c | 191$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…eae9backed Yes | 56c | 184.14$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +168%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 61c | 176$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 39c | 174$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…5686backed Yes | 18c | 166.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 40c | 162$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed No | 60c | 148$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…7632backed Yes | 49c | 146.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 60c | 143$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…32e9backed No | 70c | 142.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 40c | 142$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed Yes | 15c | 139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 80c | 138.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 44c | 136.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 62c | 135$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 133.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3f…b964backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 40c | 126.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 24c | 119$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…f74cbacked Yes | 14c | 117.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…1629backed No | 72c | 115.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb363…574abacked No | 56c | 109.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 60c | 108$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed Yes | 25c | 102.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…514abacked Yes | 50c | 100.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 54c | 97.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 19c | 97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 39c | 93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 24c | 92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed No | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 62c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…bf53backed No | 64c | 84.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 62c | 80.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 40c | 78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 64c | 73.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 60c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 71.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…026bbacked Yes | 47c | 69.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 24c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 18c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…8a8cbacked Yes | 31c | 63.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…1767backed Yes | 57c | 52.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…951ebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…7c9abacked No | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.