Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x378887aa87cc8cc75aec64bf6f58faf2bb917c6e33c3913d330e26e9b3f2969f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe922…4685backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 13c | 20,280$2,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592.31 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…ebacbacked No | 1c | 16,250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 2cpaid | +3,603.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 2c | 10,510$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.22 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2864…8527backed No | 1c | 5,400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 8c | 3,520$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 79c | 2,505$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.54 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…b1e4backed No | 3c | 2,498$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 9c | 2,220$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.68 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…2da3backed No | 16c | 2,200$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 78c | 2,125$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.75 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 6c | 2,020$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f31…83cfbacked No | 1c | 1,960$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 10c | 1,689$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.33 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c88…383abacked No | 4c | 1,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 24c | 1,309$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.75 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 25c | 1,109$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.24 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 2c | 1,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 66c | 1,012$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.45 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 972$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 77c | 892.66$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.69 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 19c | 856.71$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed No | 13c | 718.21$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 77c | 661.31$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 25c | 600$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 43c | 597.61$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.3 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…9ad1backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 18c | 490$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 34c | 479.55$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce7…dc6fbacked No | 8c | 373.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe597…4118backed No | 21c | 333$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…6d7fbacked No | 6c | 317.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…65b1backed No | 4c | 305.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…c71bbacked Yes | 74c | 303.65$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e85…804cbacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…a04dbacked No | 10c | 291.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…5ea3backed Yes | 74c | 279.44$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 14c | 277.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 78c | 275$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 21c | 274$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed Yes | 80c | 267.95$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed No | 16c | 266.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…9a83backed No | 13c | 265$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 57c | 250.43$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…de5ebacked No | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 23c | 222$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed No | 26c | 220.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…6f40backed No | 24c | 209.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed No | 24c | 209.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked No | 15c | 205$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb729…0740backed No | 21c | 204$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…11a8backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed No | 26c | 188.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…28d5backed No | 27c | 185.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 26c | 182.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…aaadbacked No | 29c | 173.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 23c | 172.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…70fcbacked No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 21c | 165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…cb25backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…b848backed No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 79c | 138.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12dd…1aacbacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…9a1abacked No | 21c | 122.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 34c | 108.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619f…fc43backed No | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…3c6ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…3587backed No | 41c | 97.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab71…be8cbacked Yes | 66c | 97.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 93.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba9…8920backed No | 19c | 89.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed No | 23c | 87.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed No | 47c | 85.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…b072backed No | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…80acbacked No | 37c | 82.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…2414backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 79.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9d…1cb9backed No | 23c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a07…0d37backed No | 34c | 75.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes | 78c | 75.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 68c | 75.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…f2ebbacked No | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…58f0backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x826b…b549backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…448ebacked No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…3965backed No | 32c | 68.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…1eedbacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…3408backed Yes | 78c | 63.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e21…0ef4backed No | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…14afbacked No | 22c | 53.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 20c | 53.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…1f89backed No | 26c | 51.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.