Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1c6947e7645fbf788fbe29468cd764b9f9d38417daa9e93c5d7bf1a55e21506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,894$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 9c | 1,560$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 4c | 1,154$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 45c | 1,130$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 40c | 774.31$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.72 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 71c | 614.71$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.67 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 38c | 538.27$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.48 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 23c | 525.55$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.42 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 27c | 503.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 4c | 502.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…0259backed Yes | 6c | 437.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 31c | 410$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed Yes | 61c | 374.61$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…f657backed Yes | 65c | 355.35$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 19c | 341.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…6bccbacked Yes | 37c | 270.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a17…6348backed Yes | 66c | 264.34$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…eeb2backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 240.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…710cbacked No | 58c | 236.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d96…e3c4backed Yes | 32c | 185.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 79c | 175.53$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 38c | 164.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…5061backed No | 61c | 162.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 41c | 162.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…fd58backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 67c | 149.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 140$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…1767backed No | 61c | 130.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 27c | 126$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…5880backed No | 74c | 123.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…06d8backed No | 76c | 118.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed Yes | 43c | 115.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 43c | 114.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 71c | 108.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdda9…35c9backed No | 68c | 104.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 68c | 103.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…f8a1backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 62c | 99.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 75c | 94.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 52c | 85.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 37c | 79.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…5edfbacked No | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…d128backed Yes | 24c | 68.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 49c | 56.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…0e65backed Yes | 24c | 55.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…156ebacked Yes | 46c | 53.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a73…9daabacked No | 72c | 51.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 59c | 50.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…82ebbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…a579backed Yes | 48c | 41.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b98…3dccbacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…e9ecbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d63…348dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…0367backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 35c | 37.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…a8d3backed No | 55c | 36.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1089…64babacked No | 70c | 35.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e69…7899backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…62bfbacked No | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…08f8backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 39c | 28.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 36c | 27.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 55c | 27.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6651…49b2backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4071…3de4backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed No | 62c | 24.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 74c | 24.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…5154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…84e0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 58c | 19.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…3fffbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9c…580bbacked No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.