TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5682…97afbacked No67c2,784$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.61947.4%9 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick65cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes32c2,770$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.6717740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes4c2,739$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.414318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b3d…021cbacked Yes75c2,640$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No59c2,088$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.3715643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd2…dd42backed Yes68c1,692$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c1,505$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No67c1,449$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.413950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes14c1,422$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.013969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x1313…85d8backed No76c1,322$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes26c1,092$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.714151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6a7…2e3cbacked No74c1,079$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.44540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No30c939.16$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.327817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes26c898.73$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.675040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes32c755.01$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes21c713.17$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+95%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes25c677.99$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.918739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c94…2c0dbacked Yes4c659.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed No62c645.1$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b00…8a5dbacked Yes3c634.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked No65c537$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1871553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce7b…b13ebacked No53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2352360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes44c455.08$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x744a…923bbacked Yes21c435$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.351283.3%10 W · 2 L+7.2wins+0.60per pick24cpaid+398.6%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0x56fa…d820backed Yes3c389.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda3…bdbebacked Yes72c381.83$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2761225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef5…9f93backed No71c368.55$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ff…121cbacked No55c365.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7871…b58ebacked No69c363.92$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes38c348.94$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.940433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes33c322.25$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.07966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed No23c316.67$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.26752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes74c297.95$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22014520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No34c276.66$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.6634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No23c266.71$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4731344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cf2…1169backed No58c263.48$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No45c248.8$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.4450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…31c9backed Yes10c241.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbdf…c675backed Yes43c230.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed No58c229.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No50c229.85$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7110121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes21c206.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.017850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes37c204$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5113440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b33…957cbacked No65c200.88$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x591a…aec2backed No62c200$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No66c190$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.516447.6%78 W · 86 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes39c178.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.287536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…69d5backed No70c171.43$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes16c168.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6620239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes13c163.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2231719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeed9…7405backed Yes25c163.84$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.436041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes41c157.12$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6516440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes28c155.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4914420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe462…e976backed No69c144.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c6…38b6backed No63c132.98$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.754753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes26c120$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3118833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a5…99e3backed No60c117.53$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.961866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed No72c104.34$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91c3…0783backed No66c103.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.41729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe86c…bb51backed Yes39c103.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402646.2%12 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+69.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0514335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd320…12b8backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3121926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No30c80.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.257354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed No57c79.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.066538.5%25 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc3…7dafbacked Yes39c77.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.041241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes66c75.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No59c75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7521333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked No62c67.56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.746061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes59c66.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0410861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xeb89…9469backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26546.2%30 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc61c…9314backed No69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.971850%9 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed Yes70c57.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes39c55.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.826434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa1f…0ec8backed No73c54.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa1d…1a37backed No78c46.73$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.28366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x155e…eda1backed No58c44.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x274f…4a00backed No46c43.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No35c40.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8730649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No53c38.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes32c36.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6316046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No62c33.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8416173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes38c31.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.816342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.28144.4%36 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9882…5540backed No67c29.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff9…0446backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+64.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1727…dac2backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+49.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9359…4aeebacked Yes43c28.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.296622.7%15 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb3…23c5backed No50c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+48.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed Yes65c27.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.115942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc02a…01aabacked Yes78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No76c23.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4910165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecca…6a15backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74161%25 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x871a…1451backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+58%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x149f…d306backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.66845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe2…34a2backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+62.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…4865backed No65c18.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.59944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37a0…ec34backed No59c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.