Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8de1538397f5cd8369b623cb2e028ff819c1d758b8a408c363c03ceffc7fc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x207f…30d3backed No | 1c | 9,905$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 10c | 5,540$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.9 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 3,021$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.09 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 4c | 1,154$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 62c | 1,120$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.49 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…de5ebacked No | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 3c | 599.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 11c | 514.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…9cc0backed No | 45c | 503.58$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 399.96$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.98 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 64c | 399.64$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8d…fbe8backed No | 44c | 343.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…ddf3backed Yes | 77c | 343.3$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed No | 15c | 336.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 53c | 329.6$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.5 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…a960backed No | 47c | 316.41$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed No | 35c | 278.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…36f4backed Yes | 62c | 250.33$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 7c | 230.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 75c | 223.59$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 50c | 215$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 6c | 211.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 51c | 196.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…232abacked No | 49c | 185.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 11c | 152.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 77c | 136.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…cd27backed No | 38c | 131.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8d…dcf3backed No | 25c | 123.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…105fbacked No | 18c | 111.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…1df6backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 58c | 98.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…c601backed Yes | 61c | 98.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 49c | 98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ccd2backed No | 38c | 94.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…8a47backed No | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 85.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 57c | 79.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac66…f7efbacked No | 41c | 71.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 49c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…8919backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…0b31backed No | 30c | 64.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…1581backed No | 50c | 50.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 63c | 47.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed No | 40c | 44.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…f2ebbacked No | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…5821backed No | 48c | 42.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f8…240abacked No | 38c | 41.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…484fbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6375…1659backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…63f5backed Yes | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 37.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…3ecfbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 32c | 32.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed No | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 37c | 30.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac6…d659backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed No | 39c | 28.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 64c | 28.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 46c | 23.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 56c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…ba0bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…f038backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…3365backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b1…1515backed Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 66c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.