Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe346aee32310971f0d7cf792648be45dd64729acd19828ffa8417bbcccf3fe5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 74c | 5,069$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.81 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 14c | 2,142$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 1,230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed No | 53c | 899.99$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda1f…2c9fbacked No | 58c | 855.61$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cd…f0c5backed No | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 58c | 537.65$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.21 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 26c | 504.42$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.22 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8d…fbe8backed No | 72c | 464.16$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 43c | 451.85$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.44 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 38c | 445.56$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.54 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…21ebbacked No | 75c | 400$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 399.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 40c | 375.43$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.84 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…5a58backed No | 66c | 349.44$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…e5ffbacked No | 68c | 300.24$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 28c | 272.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 239.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 34c | 224.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.54 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 200.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed No | 5c | 196.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 51c | 175.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 44c | 165.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…91c4backed No | 62c | 159.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 53c | 154.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 25c | 143.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…df67backed No | 70c | 142.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 38c | 131.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…49f7backed Yes | 39c | 127.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 32c | 124.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 27c | 120.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…eda0backed Yes | 33c | 118.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked No | 33c | 103.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8332backed Yes | 13c | 101.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…662ebacked No | 62c | 97.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 96.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 22c | 95.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 36c | 85.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 37c | 85.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 39c | 84.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…affcbacked No | 58c | 80.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 63c | 79.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 43c | 72.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked No | 72c | 69.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 39c | 68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 60c | 66.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…acbfbacked No | 64c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ff…ac16backed No | 63c | 63.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…b262backed Yes | 40c | 61.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 24c | 59.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…f652backed Yes | 37c | 54.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 38c | 53.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c5…8bd3backed Yes | 41c | 52.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…5616backed Yes | 39c | 51.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…817ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 49c | 50.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…acc6backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fb…10ecbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9576…69f6backed No | 50c | 47.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 50c | 46.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 43c | 45.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…61a8backed Yes | 38c | 42.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 45c | 41.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a64…e9e2backed Yes | 40c | 37.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…4d5bbacked Yes | 36c | 36.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 33.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ab…0a9bbacked No | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ee…d556backed No | 62c | 32.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…766fbacked No | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f63…ff9abacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…bb83backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 57c | 30.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…4767backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…7e45backed No | 72c | 27.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e4…18e1backed No | 62c | 27.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…79efbacked Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…e4a1backed No | 62c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…b0e4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…0d59backed No | 59c | 17.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 62c | 16.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.