Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x263b8fae2ce433eae23ce46faf7565f22817a41022334b1d079c86ce2e9c6675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,857$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.56 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…ec12backed No | 61c | 2,009$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,604$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,253$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,192$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 48c | 902.63$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.72 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 57c | 637.49$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 10c | 630.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 6c | 478.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 9c | 432.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 8c | 400.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 8c | 322.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 10c | 244.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…817ebacked Yes | 47c | 234.1$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 12c | 230.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…7979backed No | 76c | 230.2$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 11c | 207.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 7c | 195.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed Yes | 12c | 194.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 31c | 182.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 17c | 180.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 23c | 151.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 50c | 121.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 63c | 100.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77ea…9e00backed Yes | 44c | 93.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 23c | 83.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…feb7backed No | 50c | 80.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 75.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 27c | 72.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 16c | 71.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 27c | 66.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 38c | 43.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 57c | 40.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…61a8backed Yes | 50c | 40.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…eda0backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…23c5backed No | 66c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…4ba2backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…0ce1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…2fb3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d89…36f5backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…0b5ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.