Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3be8eefaab98e0dd4a172dab32c1bc05b7b287a16525cfa1b94ca33da37a726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb734…2715backed Yes | 5c | 1,975$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,509$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 3c | 1,436$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 20c | 1,265$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.17 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 1,099$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.84 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed No | 65c | 999.97$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 65c | 860.85$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.27 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 63c | 800.98$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 63c | 707.93$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.72 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 29c | 689.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.88 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 61c | 665.9$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.2 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 623.66$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.47 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 22c | 593.12$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 68c | 513.7$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.03 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 51c | 500.9$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.98 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 63c | 490.16$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…6b2bbacked No | 35c | 424.56$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 33c | 349.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.49 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 33c | 299.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…f6e4backed No | 35c | 288.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 70c | 287.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…46c8backed No | 37c | 277.21$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…4da1backed No | 37c | 271.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…29ebbacked Yes | 4c | 261.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 16c | 261.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 71c | 243.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.91 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 27c | 236.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…2ed0backed No | 79c | 227.37$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 75c | 227$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.04 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 25c | 222$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…056fbacked No | 39c | 207.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…1681backed Yes | 71c | 200.46$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee87…4d9fbacked Yes | 29c | 199.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…688fbacked Yes | 62c | 199.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…f1abbacked No | 40c | 197.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…f1bfbacked No | 69c | 180$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…cfb8backed Yes | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 17c | 172.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 47c | 161.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c4…1478backed Yes | 6c | 158.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 59c | 146.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…5346backed No | 70c | 143.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…255bbacked Yes | 67c | 139.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…48aebacked No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 38c | 129.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 31c | 128.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…0febbacked No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d63…348dbacked No | 35c | 121.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250d…6d16backed No | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 63c | 113.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 111.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…a426backed Yes | 44c | 111.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e132backed Yes | 52c | 109.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…4f03backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cca…7c01backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +109%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…0341backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 67c | 99.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 97.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…06c4backed Yes | 33c | 96.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 65c | 95.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 37c | 95.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…448ebacked No | 30c | 89.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2d24backed Yes | 23c | 88.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed No | 24c | 83.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…1685backed No | 39c | 82.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +278.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8f…6de1backed No | 33c | 81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…c67ebacked No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…7e45backed No | 51c | 78.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 51c | 78.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…d808backed No | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…ee39backed No | 38c | 68.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 66.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 65.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…77f1backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…1eedbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ee…5e08backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked No | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…3321backed No | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…5aa2backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…1b54backed No | 40c | 52.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…f66bbacked No | 39c | 51.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab7f…d263backed No | 58c | 51.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fd…706dbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed No | 78c | 50.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…fd1cbacked Yes | 66c | 50.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…b1d3backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.