TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,620 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb734…2715backed Yes5c1,975$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c1,509$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.991879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes3c1,436$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.291723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes20c1,265$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.1742738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c1,099$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.8477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed No65c999.97$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.992045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes65c860.85$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.2734440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes63c800.98$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.211637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No63c707.93$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.725253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No29c689.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.882365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+87.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes61c665.9$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.29955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No47c623.66$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.4764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes22c593.12$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8620239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes68c513.7$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.036549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes51c500.9$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.9856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes63c490.16$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3118641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdaa…6b2bbacked No35c424.56$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked No33c349.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.493348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes33c299.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.53935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…f6e4backed No35c288.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+90.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked No70c287.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.21957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5518…46c8backed No37c277.21$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+105.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91b0…4da1backed No37c271.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6747…29ebbacked Yes4c261.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes16c261.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.897817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes71c243.55$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.914156.1%23 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed Yes27c236.04$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab2d…2ed0backed No79c227.37$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.841741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes75c227$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.048739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No25c222$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.55635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c48…056fbacked No39c207.9$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.82955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf639…1681backed Yes71c200.46$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1363246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed No67c199.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.592352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee87…4d9fbacked Yes29c199.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-84.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa48d…688fbacked Yes62c199.98$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked No40c197.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…f1bfbacked No69c180$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…cfb8backed Yes31c180$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes17c172.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0110742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No47c161.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1510150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62c4…1478backed Yes6c158.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes59c146.86$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.054678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076b…5346backed No70c143.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…255bbacked Yes67c139.81$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a4c…48aebacked No37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes36c130$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.419534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb89…9469backed Yes38c129.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.786546.2%30 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed Yes31c128.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f5…0febbacked No39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d63…348dbacked No35c121.64$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+51.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x250d…6d16backed No39c120$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes63c113.23$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.677353.4%39 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes16c111.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4631719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8245…a426backed Yes44c111.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9016…e132backed Yes52c109.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175028%14 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-49.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9912…4f03backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f7…eac7backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2627233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cca…7c01backed No37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+109%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0271…0341backed Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed Yes21c99.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked Yes67c99.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c97.28$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1386542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb76e…06c4backed Yes33c96.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes65c95.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.243933.3%13 W · 26 L-7.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4a69…228fbacked No37c95.46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.461758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad10…448ebacked No30c89.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.692479.2%19 W · 5 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+32.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaf9b…2d24backed Yes23c88.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+94%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed No24c83.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.23742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+46.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…1685backed No39c82.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+278.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f8f…6de1backed No33c81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+201.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x983f…c67ebacked No68c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe1…7e45backed No51c78.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.611172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f96…a226backed No51c78.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.124264.3%27 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29da…d808backed No39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+55.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x310d…bed0backed Yes66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08d3…ee39backed No38c68.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+77.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No29c66.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes34c65.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1285725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xab69…77f1backed No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9028…1eedbacked No35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ee…5e08backed No35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3129…22edbacked No39c56.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.41944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9da3…3321backed No39c56.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.41560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+105.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94b0…9d34backed No38c52.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.991947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e2…5aa2backed No38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf55…1b54backed No40c52.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66bc…f66bbacked No39c51.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.83580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+72.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab7f…d263backed No58c51.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+37.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4fd…706dbacked No39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d7…9b78backed No39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.283951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed No78c50.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.24580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+53.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb87e…fd1cbacked Yes66c50.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeabf…97e5backed No37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked No31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.59410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x396a…b1d3backed No36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked Yes62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.