Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf989367eafca018db9bae45956a470a22364fc6cd899df5f7b7c1febdbae05aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9369…471bbacked No | 0c | 51,024$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…e38bbacked No | 0c | 14,746$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…250ebacked No | 0c | 8,267$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…ecf2backed No | 0c | 6,228$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed No | 0c | 4,989$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…4517backed No | 0c | 4,222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed No | 19c | 2,900$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 1c | 1,530$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed No | 1c | 1,337$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 49c | 1,265$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.08 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 12c | 950.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…a206backed No | 79c | 855.54$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 27c | 854.53$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 30c | 645.09$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.53 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 42c | 642.07$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.35 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 26c | 548.57$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…2f92backed Yes | 44c | 512.72$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 500.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.58 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 33c | 491.1$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.38 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc25…0343backed No | 50c | 470$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 66c | 359.52$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.58 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…1767backed No | 18c | 313.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…a8d3backed No | 52c | 241.15$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 71c | 241$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed Yes | 70c | 221.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 37c | 196.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.04 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 52c | 188.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…937bbacked No | 62c | 184$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 62c | 183$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed Yes | 31c | 182$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked Yes | 38c | 175$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 62c | 172$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 71c | 171.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked No | 76c | 171$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed Yes | 63c | 167.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 34c | 163.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 76c | 159$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f5…78b7backed No | 14c | 153.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 69c | 144.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 24c | 142$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 68c | 139$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 36c | 134.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 68c | 133$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 32c | 133$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 24c | 132$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed Yes | 32c | 130$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 30c | 130$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 39c | 128$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 41c | 125.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 29c | 119.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed No | 76c | 110$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 38c | 109$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 24c | 99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 55c | 94.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 61c | 93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked No | 69c | 85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2666…04a6backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b27…8d42backed No | 39c | 76.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 63c | 76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…6fb3backed No | 64c | 73.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed No | 61c | 72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…c97dbacked No | 80c | 63.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ed…cbbebacked No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed No | 69c | 59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 54.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 62c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05af…8f0fbacked No | 78c | 45.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…3234backed Yes | 44c | 45.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…c389backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f74…13e3backed No | 70c | 35.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 29c | 34.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5125…601abacked Yes | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…1197backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3e4fbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c9…d813backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.