Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa96dde3057c50800b0c64ffb13dfe3b1761e4512956cee8dbc36b9a72f3b791c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58b6…fff0backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…2552backed No | 3c | 7,696$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6486…9329backed No | 0c | 6,057$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +6,436.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 1c | 5,900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 3c | 5,678$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…65b1backed No | 0c | 5,292$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…0e5abacked No | 2c | 5,182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…951abacked No | 1c | 5,083$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +1,986.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 70c | 2,806$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.62 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aac…b7e1backed No | 3c | 2,779$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…4644backed No | 1c | 2,586$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 1c | 2,020$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 40c | 1,177$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.33 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed No | 1c | 965.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 2c | 950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 51c | 889.71$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.06 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 22c | 841.46$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.81 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 77c | 828.15$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.63 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…7285backed No | 13c | 793.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 43c | 793.3$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.18 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…bb41backed No | 2c | 777.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 62c | 770.55$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 3c | 770.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…2715backed Yes | 68c | 767.31$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 37c | 749.1$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.23 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 17c | 730.53$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 75c | 728.77$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.23 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 10c | 724$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095e…fd6bbacked No | 14c | 698.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082e…cd4cbacked No | 3c | 673.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 77c | 669.48$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.42 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 62c | 599.99$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.99 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 78c | 573.92$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked No | 19c | 559.79$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 73c | 546.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.24 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…a610backed No | 6c | 542.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 30c | 500$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…f25abacked No | 7c | 351.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca0…4ccebacked No | 18c | 275.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 224.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 14c | 212.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…1dc5backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 52c | 189.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed No | 57c | 176.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 164.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…edbdbacked No | 22c | 163.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 151.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed No | 36c | 139.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…efc6backed Yes | 65c | 135.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd359…af37backed No | 19c | 132.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 38c | 117.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 20c | 111.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 77c | 100.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc5…f5e1backed Yes | 79c | 96.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…e7f3backed No | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 77.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…1bf6backed No | 42c | 71.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 48c | 69.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked No | 31c | 67.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 65.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…4a45backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db4…b760backed No | 33c | 61.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…3365backed Yes | 59c | 60.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 65c | 58.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…b598backed Yes | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…5b90backed No | 37c | 54.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…1084backed No | 30c | 50.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +8.6wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd09…da63backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 26c | 48.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…d823backed No | 43c | 46.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2241…4017backed Yes | 75c | 41.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked No | 32c | 40.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e57…7a52backed Yes | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bf…e557backed No | 29c | 39.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 62c | 38.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…391dbacked No | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5831…ea09backed No | 34c | 29.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e132backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6e…8580backed Yes | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 70c | 24.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ee…9128backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…ee55backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…3790backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaaa…335bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b3…cc42backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 76c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…953cbacked No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 74cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.