Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f7cd815beb0bde04fe33ad1de50d60e0a91084d8eebe1a6d47e2831a149005
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 1c | 29,396$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.51 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…22e4backed No | 4c | 22,650$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…3058backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe93d…8339backed No | 1c | 5,139$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 1c | 3,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…8833backed No | 11c | 2,800$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +690.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 64c | 2,241$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.69 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…8474backed No | 40c | 1,742$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28cc…0d27backed No | 1c | 1,556$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…a9a2backed No | 2c | 1,259$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…3286backed No | 1c | 1,226$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…8e27backed No | 78c | 867.86$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 64c | 862.68$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.83 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…6e6ebacked No | 13c | 773.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked No | 23c | 768.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 29c | 710.11$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.41 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 50c | 699.95$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.98 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 625.72$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.94 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 42c | 599.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 5c | 559.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 48c | 500.58$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 78c | 479.98$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 469.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…542ebacked No | 48c | 412.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…4368backed No | 59c | 360.67$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 26c | 333.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb066…c5ecbacked No | 58c | 281$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 78c | 268.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…c71bbacked Yes | 78c | 244.62$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…845dbacked No | 46c | 234.8$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…70fcbacked No | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 14c | 221.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked No | 15c | 204.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 32c | 204.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x082e…cd4cbacked No | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…6edabacked No | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +682.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…fa0fbacked No | 14c | 174.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 174.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed No | 10c | 174.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…11a8backed No | 30c | 165.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked No | 25c | 161.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 49c | 160$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…e4f8backed No | 16c | 157.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…80acbacked No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 49c | 149$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 27c | 147.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed No | 12c | 145.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…8c23backed No | 57c | 135.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 73c | 134.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6d…e289backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 40c | 124.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked No | 60c | 121.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x619f…fc43backed No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa86…2e0dbacked No | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 24c | 106.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…1a5cbacked No | 40c | 100.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244e…ca5bbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…f696backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x826b…b549backed Yes | 54c | 92.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed No | 24c | 83.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…de36backed No | 22c | 83.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…9f0ebacked Yes | 56c | 81.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d4…8264backed No | 29c | 78.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes | 77c | 76.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…2414backed No | 27c | 75.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…8dadbacked No | 41c | 72.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…cf52backed No | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 72.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…484fbacked No | 28c | 71.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…24debacked Yes | 71c | 69.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…d915backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 63c | 68.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 26c | 68.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6aacbacked No | 28c | 61.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x791c…f797backed No | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…951abacked No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +1,986.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…3587backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…1aa1backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…32f4backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…9969backed Yes | 70c | 47.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…6ff3backed Yes | 72c | 44.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820a…84debacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc5…f5e1backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2b…d586backed No | 58c | 35.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b2…1237backed Yes | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…204abacked No | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…8be6backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…4a45backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…1f89backed No | 34c | 30.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2834…881dbacked No | 59c | 30.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed No | 44c | 30.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.