TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,642 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x155b…7aafbacked No1c29,396$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.519410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed No4c22,650$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa7…3058backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+89.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe93d…8339backed No1c5,139$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked No1c3,300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…8833backed No11c2,800$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+690.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes64c2,241$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.6936750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd944…8474backed No40c1,742$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28cc…0d27backed No1c1,556$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ed…a9a2backed No2c1,259$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d26…3286backed No1c1,226$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No5c1,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.15639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa25b…8e27backed No78c867.86$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes64c862.68$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.832737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011c…6e6ebacked No13c773.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc330…2b7bbacked No23c768.98$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes29c710.11$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.4142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes50c699.95$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.9856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c625.72$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.9434432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes42c599.99$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34817755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed No5c559.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes48c500.58$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.63246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes78c479.98$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.638739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No30c469.43$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x72cb…542ebacked No48c412.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa05d…4368backed No59c360.67$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No26c333.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb066…c5ecbacked No58c281$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes78c268.99$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5519534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ab…c71bbacked Yes78c244.62$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.271758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2623…845dbacked No46c234.8$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29bf…70fcbacked No13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed No14c221.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.679334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked No15c204.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.15825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed No32c204.96$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656365.1%41 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked No8c199.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164327.9%12 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x082e…cd4cbacked No50c199.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfe…6edabacked No12c175$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+682.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8bc…fa0fbacked No14c174.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.311435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes75c174.75$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3967841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb9…f6b3backed No10c174.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf88…11a8backed No30c165.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x876e…e2ffbacked No25c161.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb89…9469backed Yes49c160$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.26546.2%30 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84f…e4f8backed No16c157.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3f3…80acbacked No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes49c149$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.483969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No27c147.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…1081backed No12c145.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c33…8c23backed No57c135.04$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes73c134.56$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.929827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c6d…e289backed No75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked No12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+151.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed No40c124.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked No60c121.67$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x619f…fc43backed No33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa86…2e0dbacked No35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No24c106.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30b…1a5cbacked No40c100.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-84.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x244e…ca5bbacked No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a7a…f696backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1740%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x826b…b549backed Yes54c92.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.691163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+40.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed No24c83.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+46.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49ae…de36backed No22c83.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe535…9f0ebacked Yes56c81.03$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.31580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d4…8264backed No29c78.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes77c76.37$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.27757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bca…2414backed No27c75.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd79…8dadbacked No41c72.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe9a…cf52backed No62c72.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes71c72.39$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4285…484fbacked No28c71.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d2f…24debacked Yes71c69.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.291030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6013…d915backed No29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+52.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ae…33e4backed No58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-72.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes63c68.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.423839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No26c68.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.426342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…3239backed No59c67.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.081323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x637a…6aacbacked No28c61.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes65c59.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x791c…f797backed No29c58.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4259…951abacked No29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick15cpaid+1,986.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8214…3587backed No58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb37a…1aa1backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2479…32f4backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb61…9969backed Yes70c47.01$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef39…6ff3backed Yes72c44.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x820a…84debacked No28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc5…f5e1backed Yes78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+46.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e2b…d586backed No58c35.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b2…1237backed Yes54c33.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590a…204abacked No62c32.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f23…8be6backed Yes78c32.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.052356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa960…4a45backed No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17fa…1f89backed No34c30.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.452045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2834…881dbacked No59c30.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3e…1726backed No44c30.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-71.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.