Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c99bd9318801c1095a8f622d864b205d4c3a5c544eb42793df5f59b6b03b235
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked No | 0c | 18,630$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1593…86f4backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 1c | 6,297$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…9573backed No | 75c | 4,625$3,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,447.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 1c | 4,050$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…a65abacked No | 1c | 3,364$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 50c | 2,897$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.48 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 76c | 2,622$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.47 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…443fbacked No | 5c | 2,562$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…85a4backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…d3d2backed No | 0c | 2,474$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 1c | 2,328$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 1c | 2,098$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…b28dbacked No | 1c | 1,989$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa1…b815backed No | 2c | 1,937$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…5b16backed No | 1c | 1,078$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,022$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.12 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,016$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd14…e469backed No | 2c | 881.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 67c | 699.99$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…fd6fbacked No | 3c | 588.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 73c | 548.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 3c | 444.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 23c | 444.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.32 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 21c | 432.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.48 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 24c | 416.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.22 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 395$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.25 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 18c | 388.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.92 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…02dcbacked No | 71c | 280.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 4c | 279.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…34cdbacked No | 4c | 276.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed Yes | 44c | 273$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cd…f8c1backed No | 79c | 250$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 78c | 207.56$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed Yes | 26c | 193.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 56c | 187$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 31c | 150.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 29c | 149.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…c2d3backed No | 70c | 143.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 139.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 58c | 133$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed No | 56c | 129$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…bc48backed No | 78c | 128.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 57c | 115$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 27c | 109.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 43c | 99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 25c | 98.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 24c | 93.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 88.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 68c | 88.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 44c | 88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 29c | 83.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…f652backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked Yes | 54c | 81.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 57c | 81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 78.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 74c | 75.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8332backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 57c | 67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 24c | 65.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 26c | 64.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a1…9472backed No | 47c | 63.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…5b9cbacked Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe00c…3546backed Yes | 28c | 54.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…034cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 29c | 51.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 74c | 46.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…99f3backed Yes | 55c | 45.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…4e3cbacked Yes | 48c | 43.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 43c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb16…c129backed Yes | 34c | 31.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 62c | 30.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…02c8backed No | 70c | 28.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d89…36f5backed No | 63c | 25.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8f…752abacked Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0cebbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…5154backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.