Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73c714cdc47407b0e29a11ab7f150e70a3f8bde057be6cceba86e81add05afc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 79c | 4,810$3,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,824 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 78c | 4,766$3,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,710.28 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 15c | 4,113$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.03 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 67c | 2,681$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.25 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…77dbbacked No | 69c | 1,985$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 78c | 1,884$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.68 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 40c | 1,800$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.22 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,647$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 13c | 1,419$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.91 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 27c | 1,350$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.41 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 1c | 1,315$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 15c | 1,289$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.35 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 8c | 1,260$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.39 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 68c | 1,011$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.83 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6429…33fcbacked No | 18c | 957.22$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +283.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 47c | 932.6$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.13 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 41c | 910.72$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.55 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 15c | 851.17$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…cf9bbacked No | 40c | 800$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed No | 71c | 610.45$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 41c | 554.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 518.39$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.56 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 79c | 500$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 22c | 498.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.07 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 19c | 497.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.75 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6039…03a0backed No | 20c | 489.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 74c | 477.5$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 21c | 475$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.36 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 10c | 473.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da0…73e2backed No | 68c | 440.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 72c | 407.54$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.99 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 34c | 400$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.2 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 6c | 388.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.2 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17f…60eebacked No | 17c | 345$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +276%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 45c | 314$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 61c | 308.44$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…21f7backed No | 20c | 303.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…de5ebacked No | 5c | 299.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.99 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 48c | 293.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 69c | 289.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked No | 18c | 269.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…0693backed Yes | 6c | 244.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 28c | 229.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 21c | 224.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.37 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 19c | 218.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 216.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.18 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 215.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 47c | 212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed No | 49c | 207.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…e9c9backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 25c | 196$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.96 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…699fbacked No | 70c | 192.65$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…cfd0backed No | 61c | 191.58$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 24c | 181$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a718backed No | 61c | 178.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 57c | 164.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e046backed Yes | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 59c | 159.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…1c19backed No | 64c | 141.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…a859backed No | 76c | 138.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked No | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…106abacked No | 46c | 135.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…151ebacked No | 37c | 135.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdb…d13abacked No | 53c | 135.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 14c | 135$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…7642backed No | 74c | 134.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…0f82backed No | 77c | 128.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…fde1backed No | 60c | 127.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…ec9abacked No | 59c | 118.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 56c | 115.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 111.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 38c | 109.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…e61abacked No | 64c | 108.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…ad82backed No | 28c | 105.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9002…8999backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 59c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc489…e163backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…fa0fbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 56c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e76…37acbacked No | 59c | 99.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 26c | 99.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 45c | 93.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 15c | 88.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…ad51backed No | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…9738backed No | 24c | 83.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 29c | 81.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 46c | 81.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…0897backed No | 64c | 77.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed No | 39c | 73.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…1106backed No | 14c | 72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee87…4d9fbacked Yes | 33c | 67.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.