TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,522 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84fa…1327backed Yes79c4,810$3,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,82414335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes78c4,766$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.2823839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes15c4,113$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.031879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No67c2,681$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.258056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf748…77dbbacked No69c1,985$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes78c1,884$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.689626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes40c1,800$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.2217414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes1c1,647$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No13c1,419$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.915042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No27c1,350$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.4135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a12…9d86backed Yes1c1,315$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152020%4 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No15c1,289$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.357632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No8c1,260$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.395927.1%16 W · 43 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-35.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No68c1,011$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.8334440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6429…33fcbacked No18c957.22$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+283.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No47c932.6$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.1338247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes41c910.72$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.5535355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes15c851.17$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1259930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28fb…cf9bbacked No40c800$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c3…0e32backed No71c610.45$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c600$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes41c554.96$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.753534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes56c518.39$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.5677636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No12c500$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44023525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes79c500$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39717755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked No22c498.36$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.072611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No19c497.53$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.756240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6039…03a0backed No20c489.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.95825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked No74c477.5$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1521034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No21c475$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.368552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes10c473.58$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.269334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0da0…73e2backed No68c440.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes72c407.54$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.998143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No34c400$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.26549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No6c388.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.219428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17f…60eebacked No17c345$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.352100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+276%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes45c314$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1656336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No61c308.44$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.795253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27d6…21f7backed No20c303.15$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fcd…de5ebacked No5c299.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.992638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid+40.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes48c293.96$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.627817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes69c289.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked No18c269.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.092740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes6c244.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f96…a226backed No28c229.33$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.334264.3%27 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No21c224.15$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3715643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No19c218.66$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3720239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No18c216.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.1831719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c215.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.981,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes47c212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…3ae0backed No49c207.71$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.431145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes48c200$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.15244.2%23 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb473…e9c9backed No59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid+45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No25c196$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.9640939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11e…699fbacked No70c192.65$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e18…cfd0backed No61c191.58$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a2…6658backed No24c181$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.561414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d39…a718backed No61c178.96$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.96944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No57c164.4$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.693225%8 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd091…e046backed Yes41c160$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No59c159.87$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.74678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No27c150$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cd2…1c19backed No64c141.56$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa81f…a859backed No76c138.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.22922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-68%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0097…4a1dbacked No22c136.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.362321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b79…106abacked No46c135.78$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f17…151ebacked No37c135.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.65475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+113.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbdb…d13abacked No53c135.01$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No14c135$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8510244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x454f…7642backed No74c134.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02b0…0f82backed No77c128.41$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f99…fde1backed No60c127.18$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391e…ec9abacked No59c118.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.752965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes56c115.1$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.657353.4%39 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c111.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes52c110$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.13363.6%21 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+53.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes38c109.68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.689955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8456…e61abacked No64c108.18$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.311338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf60d…ad82backed No28c105.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+81.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9002…8999backed No19c105.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No59c103$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.231668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+48.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6718…e623backed No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc489…e163backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7610861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bc…fa0fbacked No21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No56c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.496621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e76…37acbacked No59c99.52$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes26c99.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2614420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x819e…e967backed Yes45c93.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.352147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed No15c88.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7419534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3296…ad51backed No24c87.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+177.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9a…9738backed No24c83.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.31450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No29c81.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.76342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d42…8fbbbacked No46c81.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9411856.8%67 W · 51 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c48…0897backed No64c77.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed No39c73.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.571921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x357f…1106backed No14c72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee87…4d9fbacked Yes33c67.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.41812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-84.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.