Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c25339ee16dba87b083f4d7cba9f6058a23a73d161904b49de66ca74e2a0d89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed No | 72c | 4,707$3,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.84 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 2c | 2,118$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,282$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…d210backed Yes | 41c | 1,138$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…156cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,071$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 17c | 956.79$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 32c | 890.27$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.21 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…7979backed No | 78c | 862.06$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 12c | 846.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 78c | 811.17$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.67 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 75c | 790.92$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.23 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 68c | 778.26$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.26 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…2575backed Yes | 20c | 735.62$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 728.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…a1cfbacked No | 58c | 624$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6662…3e03backed No | 59c | 615$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 2c | 590.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 589.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…29bbbacked No | 59c | 523$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…90e3backed Yes | 38c | 447.36$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a76…4fe9backed No | 58c | 447$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 10c | 422.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 25c | 400$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 16c | 399.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…3dabbacked Yes | 41c | 350$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 12c | 345.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 69c | 327.86$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 318.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 21c | 300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 29c | 294.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 39c | 290.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c675backed Yes | 35c | 287.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 28c | 282.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 30c | 280$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe076…b110backed Yes | 16c | 275.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 40c | 266.31$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed Yes | 38c | 262.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 17c | 259.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked Yes | 10c | 246.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cd…f0c5backed Yes | 8c | 221.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 60c | 193.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa751…ba09backed No | 59c | 190$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked No | 60c | 189$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf895…7aafbacked Yes | 13c | 174.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…503abacked No | 59c | 160$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…448abacked No | 63c | 158.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed Yes | 15c | 153.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 31c | 150.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…817ebacked Yes | 37c | 147.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 63c | 146.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 41c | 142.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 27c | 142.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…5278backed Yes | 36c | 138.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310c…1430backed Yes | 37c | 135.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed Yes | 32c | 128$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 38c | 125.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…d6e6backed Yes | 38c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd31e…6e9abacked Yes | 32c | 113.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206f…c481backed Yes | 40c | 100.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 26c | 90.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x704f…ef5dbacked Yes | 41c | 87.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 32c | 84.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 36c | 80.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 30c | 79.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…61a8backed Yes | 21c | 75.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…0b5ebacked No | 69c | 72.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b1…1515backed Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…7c05backed No | 72c | 69.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…2c33backed Yes | 39c | 64.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf495…3429backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +518.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked No | 74c | 54.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…69b8backed Yes | 40c | 50.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…5e40backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…eda0backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d8…6082backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…18f3backed Yes | 40c | 49.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…4ba2backed Yes | 40c | 47.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a90…904cbacked Yes | 41c | 44.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 68c | 43.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 63c | 42.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…4767backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…f453backed No | 63c | 39.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…5633backed Yes | 26c | 39.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f9…9126backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 39c | 38.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…56d8backed No | 66c | 36.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.