Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fde8300499c05c922e87bc08df7c284378767b5ad3be33f954d84c0d19eb71f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 8c | 447.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 9c | 414.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 40c | 402.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 338.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 5c | 313.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 47c | 276.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 48c | 201.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…50e8backed No | 45c | 199$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…8dc4backed Yes | 55c | 194$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 52c | 191.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 46c | 170.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 49c | 125.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda9…35c9backed No | 76c | 113.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed Yes | 54c | 110.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 29c | 104.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…14afbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dce…e7a9backed Yes | 33c | 98.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 89.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…c06abacked No | 65c | 80.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa978…5801backed No | 78c | 79.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f5…8a1abacked No | 76c | 66.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ee…5e08backed No | 44c | 61.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 60.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…69b6backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…6519backed No | 78c | 57.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…ec9abacked No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed No | 53c | 52.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked No | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 47c | 46.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c88…5aecbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed No | 45c | 39.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked No | 52c | 38.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfa…520dbacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…7f61backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d63…348dbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 47c | 31.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…e15cbacked No | 53c | 31.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…70d8backed No | 72c | 30.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…e5a3backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 46c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a718backed No | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…e628backed No | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f6…d059backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2d24backed No | 49c | 20.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…bdb5backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…de36backed No | 59c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdb…d13abacked No | 61c | 16.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.