Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd05f91e3721fb0cf64bdea756c305f9d6a913d90b83758398a26955a26069870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 10,247$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 77c | 3,394$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.47 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…a9fdbacked No | 1c | 2,779$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 54c | 2,168$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.66 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 20c | 2,166$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.89 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…2c53backed No | 25c | 1,969$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 80c | 1,767$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.76 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…c66fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,762$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 24c | 1,582$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.18 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…1cf3backed No | 45c | 1,561$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed Yes | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,455$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 33c | 1,442$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 20c | 1,344$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.34 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a0…175dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,082$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 62c | 1,028$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.19 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked No | 9c | 999$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 6c | 979.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 27c | 971.3$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.84 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 22c | 788.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…77dbbacked No | 64c | 710.24$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 28c | 690.27$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…1ed4backed No | 28c | 647.75$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 49c | 633.4$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.45 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…fd58backed No | 41c | 603.17$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 23c | 593.12$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 32c | 537.44$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.51 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked No | 27c | 485.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 73c | 481.36$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 48c | 472.04$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.34 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 73c | 449.94$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed No | 8c | 390.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…5f58backed No | 25c | 378.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…2f92backed Yes | 75c | 363.56$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 45c | 361$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 29c | 346.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 18c | 331.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x957a…7a0abacked No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed No | 34c | 293.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43db…9871backed Yes | 71c | 287.49$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 45c | 275$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 47c | 270.24$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 56c | 267.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2d24backed No | 25c | 257.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…7a88backed Yes | 77c | 252.24$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…a211backed No | 37c | 246.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 49c | 245.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.45 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…07abbacked No | 53c | 244.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 44c | 244.03$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 76c | 218.33$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…7642backed No | 46c | 216.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…a960backed No | 46c | 212.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 64c | 206.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 46c | 199.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 54c | 199.76$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…e61abacked Yes | 78c | 193.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed No | 62c | 183.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed No | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 23c | 166.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 37c | 158.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f5f1backed No | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe19c…0b8dbacked Yes | 77c | 140.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 42c | 135.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…f847backed Yes | 68c | 135.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 16c | 132.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1d…4036backed No | 12c | 122.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 58c | 120.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 77c | 120.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f1…fe4ebacked Yes | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…2134backed Yes | 49c | 119.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…cf9bbacked No | 48c | 119.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 16c | 119.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 45c | 116.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 27c | 116.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 113.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 65c | 112.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdb…d13abacked No | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed Yes | 48c | 104.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…9f2cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…f8a1backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…4da1backed No | 52c | 95.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked No | 37c | 95.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…5e9dbacked No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…e22fbacked No | 32c | 95.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6375…1659backed No | 43c | 93.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 64c | 91.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 62c | 87.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…c601backed Yes | 65c | 83.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…d314backed No | 20c | 82.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 79.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.