Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99809cb38e507d7084ab05f540890e3509101437b7223fa5b3a571951ac7e226
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…874dbacked No | 72c | 1,806$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,588$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.83 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,272$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,093$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 23c | 697.77$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.43 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…113bbacked Yes | 29c | 690.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 599.99$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 68c | 543.8$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.45 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 13c | 488.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 29c | 480$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…942dbacked Yes | 18c | 440.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 22c | 420.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 76c | 399$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 72c | 395$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 18c | 375$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 74c | 366.44$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 75c | 362$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…61fdbacked No | 70c | 358$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 34c | 345.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…fc43backed Yes | 18c | 345$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 14c | 340.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 27c | 308$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 14c | 306$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 28c | 296$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 16c | 273.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 72c | 270.23$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 64c | 253$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 68c | 251$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 73c | 235$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 31c | 234$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Yes | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 36c | 220$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 79c | 212.51$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 64c | 191.73$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed No | 69c | 188$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 31c | 188$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 77c | 185$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes | 24c | 184.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 62c | 184$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 63c | 177.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 18c | 166.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 29c | 161$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 71c | 161$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked No | 63c | 158$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 30c | 157$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 31c | 156$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 71c | 155$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed Yes | 19c | 154.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 13c | 151.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 70c | 146$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed Yes | 38c | 143$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked No | 62c | 143$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4071…3de4backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 66c | 129$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…7c74backed No | 78c | 128.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked No | 79c | 126.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 14c | 126.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 20c | 124.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 71c | 121$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 19c | 119$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 69c | 119$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 30c | 118.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 73c | 115$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…351ebacked Yes | 38c | 112$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 106.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1089…64babacked No | 77c | 104.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes | 18c | 104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2e…45fbbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed No | 64c | 98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 30c | 97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 15c | 94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 35c | 93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked No | 79c | 93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 22c | 91.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 14c | 91.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…8f4bbacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…3a32backed Yes | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b27…8d42backed Yes | 46c | 80.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…6232backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…261dbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc666…7130backed Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…a206backed No | 80c | 69.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 80c | 63.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes | 38c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.