Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0f20e138c52e623884ed1ad5a8f54026aec9a9eba9faea9978c8c594807571e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked No | 0c | 4,220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 61c | 3,509$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.36 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 47c | 2,503$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.57 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 53c | 2,104$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.9 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 62c | 1,784$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.23 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…d644backed No | 59c | 1,607$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 63c | 927.65$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.81 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…7f05backed No | 63c | 794.15$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 562.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.99 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked Yes | 48c | 520$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 59c | 500$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eca…6773backed No | 64c | 492$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 54c | 425.81$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.29 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 27c | 416.7$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.48 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed No | 51c | 390.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 33c | 352.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.3 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…d9d1backed Yes | 45c | 345.29$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…efb2backed No | 60c | 335.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 43c | 311.82$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 52c | 285.75$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.44 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…b8f9backed No | 39c | 253.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 70c | 250.76$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.44 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…3da2backed No | 53c | 245.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…e61abacked Yes | 42c | 237.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 43c | 235.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked No | 64c | 219.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 45c | 208.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…f4b3backed No | 68c | 207.28$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 26c | 202.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.92 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 36c | 200.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…9638backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed No | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 43c | 194.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…44f4backed Yes | 31c | 161.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 48c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2666…04a6backed No | 71c | 141.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Yes | 63c | 138.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…9baebacked Yes | 65c | 121.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 34c | 118.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 50c | 114.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 50c | 100.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…a526backed Yes | 25c | 90.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca63…0a60backed No | 67c | 89.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 41c | 87.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8c…768bbacked No | 69c | 85.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 43c | 83.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed No | 44c | 82.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 50c | 81.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…af0bbacked Yes | 58c | 80.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8332backed No | 43c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Yes | 72c | 72.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 15c | 71.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed Yes | 51c | 58.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 58c | 55.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 54.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…46ccbacked No | 54c | 54.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e91…31a5backed No | 58c | 51.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 53c | 46.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…2fb3backed No | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…de20backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4071…3de4backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…55acbacked No | 64c | 31.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…5154backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…a1b3backed No | 50c | 28.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2c…5cf2backed No | 66c | 28.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Yes | 65c | 25.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…1f89backed No | 52c | 25.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…52d1backed No | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 49c | 20.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd025…158ebacked No | 67c | 19.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…8056backed No | 68c | 18.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.