Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0942e231cb88d2d8c6b8ac9d0a472b65d6ebbbad260e3eb67dc7c72f4c5c84c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 13c | 4,456$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.13 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a718backed No | 4c | 3,223$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0191…93f0backed No | 15c | 2,648$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…0d88backed No | 12c | 2,401$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 16c | 2,352$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.66 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…9631backed No | 26c | 1,901$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 7c | 1,860$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 6c | 1,802$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 14c | 1,573$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.75 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4af2backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 10c | 1,200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked No | 16c | 1,170$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.82 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a72…4693backed No | 13c | 1,085$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed No | 36c | 1,077$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…106abacked No | 17c | 1,010$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6039…03a0backed No | 18c | 973.46$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked No | 12c | 950.58$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 47c | 949$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.18 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 11c | 883.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 802.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…e89ebacked No | 18c | 792.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…edf2backed No | 27c | 735.32$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 14c | 723.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da0…73e2backed Yes | 79c | 630.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 22c | 600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed No | 17c | 590$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 9c | 578.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 23c | 541$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9002…8999backed No | 23c | 501.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…cf9bbacked No | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 23c | 479.77$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 17c | 472.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…2c53backed No | 31c | 460.2$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 17c | 424.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 14c | 400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 76c | 399.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…1106backed No | 15c | 393.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…3b37backed No | 16c | 389.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…a211backed No | 21c | 355.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 41c | 330.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 17c | 326.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc58…1dffbacked No | 20c | 326.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…75efbacked No | 16c | 318.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 70c | 313.35$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…6562backed No | 7c | 299.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed No | 12c | 299.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…3bd7backed No | 21c | 290.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 12c | 277.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…c601backed Yes | 58c | 260.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 15c | 255.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 55c | 242.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.61 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 76c | 236.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 9c | 232.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…7d1dbacked No | 20c | 229.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 45c | 223.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 31c | 221.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…699fbacked Yes | 62c | 211.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 14c | 207.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed Yes | 75c | 204.59$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…fd02backed No | 13c | 200.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…8602backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked No | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 25c | 199.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9350…25d1backed No | 51c | 196.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 196.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a485backed No | 13c | 191.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…fa0fbacked No | 18c | 190.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…ce0bbacked No | 17c | 181.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 53c | 180.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 68c | 179.95$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…9738backed No | 24c | 178.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 14c | 171.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 12c | 171.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 50c | 159.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8f24backed No | 31c | 159.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 61c | 138.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 38c | 130.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…00c1backed No | 17c | 127.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…6903backed Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f5f1backed No | 47c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc697…6a7ebacked No | 21c | 112.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93a…a6a3backed No | 13c | 111.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7f…d263backed No | 17c | 109.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…3321backed No | 14c | 105.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 29c | 101.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…77b8backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…d8debacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed No | 32c | 97.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.