Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c68c97bbc6a9fd697efd40b48cb5f4c591ee641f3f18351c566bffdf81750f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,213$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,077$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.79 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 13c | 890.39$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 54c | 811.63$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.99 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 60c | 776.99$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…f609backed No | 74c | 676.52$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 10c | 634.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 43c | 597.26$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.57 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed No | 64c | 547.61$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 44c | 537.44$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed No | 69c | 509.98$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…1439backed Yes | 4c | 440.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 61c | 388.34$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…745ebacked No | 68c | 295.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.97 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…7e94backed Yes | 41c | 252.79$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 25c | 215.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed Yes | 60c | 170.66$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 72c | 154.77$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 149.93$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…72b9backed Yes | 31c | 146.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…44f4backed Yes | 35c | 144.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…0d9dbacked No | 73c | 137.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed Yes | 40c | 136.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed No | 78c | 122.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 37c | 114.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 105.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…d9d1backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 70c | 96.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 21c | 94.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 34c | 89.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 69c | 88.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…00dabacked Yes | 16c | 79.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…1767backed No | 64c | 78.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…a8d3backed No | 63c | 76.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 36c | 72.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…c389backed No | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 41c | 59.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 32c | 57.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a17…6348backed Yes | 49c | 55.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…5880backed No | 77c | 53.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfa…520dbacked No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e51…ca50backed Yes | 43c | 46.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…805abacked Yes | 35c | 43.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 52c | 37.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 61c | 34.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c9…d813backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0e…e85bbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…2fb3backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…c290backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes | 68c | 24.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…ddd4backed Yes | 67c | 21.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…5154backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81f…8212backed No | 67c | 19.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.