Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8aae57e73d7dfc921d7569b142b0ced1cd84f1de38137c2c15168d1cba719bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56fa…d820backed Yes | 2c | 2,066$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 7c | 904.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…bdadbacked Yes | 1c | 790.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 31c | 755.26$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.13 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…9573backed No | 68c | 732.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 18c | 709.82$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.1 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 9c | 705.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 47c | 644.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 54c | 623.13$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.95 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 53c | 355.32$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 40c | 325.95$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.95 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 20c | 290.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked No | 68c | 222.01$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 206.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 56c | 172.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 17c | 164.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 55c | 149.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…e4a1backed Yes | 46c | 140.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 40c | 124.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe020…d054backed Yes | 46c | 106.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked No | 69c | 103.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked No | 68c | 103.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 26c | 99.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed No | 66c | 98.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…b962backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 44c | 75.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 68c | 74.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb16…c129backed Yes | 30c | 72.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…799fbacked No | 73c | 71.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 71c | 56.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…5540backed No | 73c | 49.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 63c | 48.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dc…8125backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 54c | 38.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked No | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…781dbacked No | 75c | 34.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…2fb3backed No | 66c | 30.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…c4a3backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc06…8cc1backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…b0e4backed No | 70c | 28.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 69c | 28.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…376abacked No | 73c | 27.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 77c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…aee3backed No | 68c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…2ba7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…e809backed No | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f3…28e6backed No | 60c | 17.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b98…3dccbacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.