Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b3acf1812cf22378e022ee06b0a95018811ec3cb1aaf130816eb72d7a1f2052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 9c | 1,210$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…36f4backed Yes | 71c | 1,198$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,140$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.01 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 55c | 1,111$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.45 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 74c | 825.22$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.22 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 29c | 787.57$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.57 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…212fbacked Yes | 76c | 661.92$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…b2dabacked Yes | 53c | 550$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 8c | 540.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 31c | 538.74$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 38c | 517.22$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.33 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 62c | 496.71$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.98 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.01 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 72c | 399.94$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed Yes | 64c | 386.97$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 28c | 343.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.91 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 48c | 335.49$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.79 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 69c | 290.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 43c | 254.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 37c | 249.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 248.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 61c | 244$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8d…fbe8backed No | 44c | 227.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked No | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 64c | 215.89$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.51 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 36c | 200$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…f422backed Yes | 74c | 199.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…cf9bbacked Yes | 55c | 199.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed No | 35c | 168.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked No | 30c | 167.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…c601backed Yes | 70c | 162.35$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 67c | 157.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…6a10backed Yes | 63c | 156.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…5880backed No | 28c | 156.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 37c | 133.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 19c | 127.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 56c | 124$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 36c | 116.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes | 69c | 110.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 65c | 110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 48c | 103.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…bd87backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 39c | 93.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed Yes | 60c | 92.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe402…76c9backed Yes | 56c | 82.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…8919backed Yes | 40c | 79.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed No | 44c | 76.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 58c | 67.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2d24backed No | 34c | 65.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 50c | 63.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 37c | 62.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6375…1659backed No | 43c | 58.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76e1…c5aabacked No | 40c | 49.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked No | 60c | 46.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…4cccbacked Yes | 71c | 40.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…3ecfbacked Yes | 74c | 40.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 38c | 39.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Yes | 63c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…1ca6backed Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 64c | 32.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed No | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 50c | 28.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 74c | 24.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…1015backed No | 51c | 22.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed Yes | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 20.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…59d8backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d6…3ae3backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…9738backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.