Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244a1ce4e23c454f05373af9f81cb0103e067c086038f4dfddc52a313e3a054c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 6c | 3,254$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.09 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 3c | 3,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,545$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.2 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…b16fbacked No | 77c | 1,813$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 1c | 1,803$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.29 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 12c | 1,571$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.94 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,488$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.61 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 1c | 1,485$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.08 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…bf57backed Yes | 37c | 1,421$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 50c | 1,373$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.14 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 32c | 1,143$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.16 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 18c | 970.57$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 26c | 860.06$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.72 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 73c | 850$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 71c | 700$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 3c | 587$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.58 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed Yes | 23c | 476.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 57c | 467.79$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.64 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 13c | 413.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed No | 30c | 389.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 56c | 380.19$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.07 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed No | 13c | 377$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked Yes | 12c | 371.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes | 12c | 371.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 32c | 315.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 68c | 299.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed Yes | 49c | 264.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed Yes | 62c | 264.32$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…97b7backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…4b34backed Yes | 7c | 240.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 68c | 208.63$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 15c | 186.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 49c | 181.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 13c | 172.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.18 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 69c | 166.7$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff9…0446backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…c046backed Yes | 15c | 134.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…113bbacked No | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 31c | 121.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes | 13c | 121.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 64c | 113.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 49c | 107$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefb…7392backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8332backed Yes | 28c | 88.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 18c | 85.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 78c | 68.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 49c | 65.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…9baebacked Yes | 61c | 62.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed No | 66c | 60.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5125…601abacked Yes | 48c | 55.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 78c | 55.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…eda6backed Yes | 41c | 48.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…83a2backed No | 75c | 45.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 56c | 40.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…73cebacked No | 78c | 38.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed No | 60c | 35.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed No | 43c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.